Guernsey vs Isle of Man Preview – T20 Internationals 2026 | Statz
1st May 2026
Guernsey host Isle of Man at King George V Sports Ground in Castel, Guernsey. This T20 International gets underway at 10:00 BST (09:00 UTC) on 2 May 2026. Guernsey sit 38th in the ICC T20I rankings – Isle of Man are unranked. Statz gives Guernsey a 56.3% chance of winning if they bat first.
The Venue
King George V Sports Ground in Castel has hosted 2 T20 matches in Statz data. Average runs per match: 305.5 – this is a high-scoring ground by associate cricket standards. Boundary percentage sits at 47.5%, with an average of 6.5 sixes and 26.5 fours per game. Spin is significantly more economical than seam here: spin economy 6.26 vs seam economy 8.61. Spinners have also contributed 54.2% of wickets at this ground vs 50% for seamers, meaning a quality spinner could be key. The top scorer has consistently come from the opener position. Guernsey have played 2 matches at this ground and won 0 – an interesting quirk for a team playing at home. Isle of Man have no record here.
Form and Table
Guernsey – 38th in the ICC T20I rankings (rating 77, 27 matches). Last five results (from Statz): W (vs Germany, 172/4 beat 162/9), W (vs Germany, 165/5 beat 164/5), L (vs Germany, 98/10 vs 100/1), NR, L. The wins over Germany last August show Guernsey are capable on their day. Three of their last five have involved Germany in closely-fought games.
Isle of Man – Unranked by ICC. Last five results (from Statz): NR, W (vs Austria), W (vs Austria), L (vs Germany or Austria), L. Limited recent data. Their form against lower-ranked European opposition is mixed.
Head-to-Head
1 meeting since 2020 (Statz data). Guernsey lead 1-0. Last meeting: Guernsey won by 8 wickets on 21 Aug 2020 at College Field – Isle of Man posted 100/9 (20 overs), Guernsey knocked it off in 11.3 overs for 101/2. A dominant chase. Neither team has faced the other at King George V Sports Ground, so there is no venue-specific H2H record to reference.
Statz Projections
If Guernsey bat first: 56.3% win probability. Projected first innings 162-163, P10/P90 range of 139-186. Projected match total 311-312, P10/P90: 272-350.
That 311-run projected match total is well in line with the ground average of 305.5. High scores are the norm here and the P90 of 350 suggests this can go even higher. If Guernsey exploit the conditions and their home knowledge, a score of 160-175 batting first would put pressure on an Isle of Man side with limited recent T20I pedigree.
Full projections: Guernsey vs Isle of Man Statz Projections
Competition Season Leaders
Orange Cap (T20 Internationals 2026):
1. Suryakumar Yadav – 242 runs (5 innings)
2. Shimron Hetmyer – 233 runs (6 innings)
3. Ishan Kishan – 215 runs (4 innings)
4. Connor Esterhuizen – 200 runs (5 innings)
5. Zubair Ali – 200 runs (5 innings)
Purple Cap (T20 Internationals 2026):
1. Keshav Maharaj – 12 wickets (8 innings)
2. Mitchell Santner – 10 wickets (8 innings)
3. Matthew Humphreys – 10 wickets (5 innings)
4. Abrar Ahmed – 9 wickets (5 innings)
5. Mohammad Nawaz – 8 wickets (5 innings)
No season leaderboard data is available for Guernsey or Isle of Man in the current T20I season – both teams have played 0 matches so far this season prior to this fixture.
Predicted XIs
Guernsey (based on XI vs Germany, 15 Aug 2023):
Matthew Stokes (c), Ollie Nightingale, Luke Bichard, Tom Nightingale, Alex Bushell (wk), David Hooper, Ben Ferbrache, Adam Martel, Dane Mullen, Josh Butler, Gh Smit
Isle of Man (based on XI vs Austria, 09 Jul 2023):
Adam McAuley, Nathan Knights, Christian Webster, George Burrows, Carl Hartman (wk), Edward Beard, Joseph Burrows, Matthew Ansell (c), Fraser Clarke, Chris Langford, JJ Griffin
Note: Both lineups are based on data from 2023. Check statz.ai/cricket for confirmed squads ahead of tomorrow’s toss.
Dream11 Tips
Captain (C): Matthew Stokes (GGY) – Guernsey captain and top-projected Dream11 points from in_recent_xi players.
Vice Captain (VC): Chris Langford (IOM) – Isle of Man’s second-highest projected Dream11 points from in_recent_xi players.
Next 3 for reference: Josh Butler (GGY), JJ Griffin (IOM), Joseph Burrows (IOM)
Key Players
Matthew Stokes (GGY) – Guernsey captain, right-hand bat and right-arm fast-medium. The skipper leads from the front and is the highest Dream11-projected player in the predicted XI.
Josh Butler (GGY) – Guernsey bat and seam option. A key lower-order contributor at this high-scoring ground where bat rules over ball.
Tom Nightingale (GGY) – Allrounder with off-spin who could be valuable on a surface where spin economy drops to 6.26. A ground that suits the spin option.
Chris Langford (IOM) – Left-hand bat and left-arm seamer. Isle of Man’s highest-projected Dream11 points player in the predicted XI and their main threat with both bat and ball.
Note: No individual hit rate data is available for this fixture via Statz – both teams have no current season data on file. Player selections are based on model projected points from predicted XIs only.
Conditions
Weather data is unavailable for King George V Sports Ground (venue coordinates not on file). Guernsey in early May typically sees mild temperatures with the possibility of coastal breeze and patchy cloud. Check local forecasts ahead of the match.
Verdict and Betting Angles
Back Guernsey. They hold the only H2H result – a dominant 8-wicket win – and the Statz model gives them a 56.3% edge at home. Their wins over Germany in August 2023 show they can compete against European opposition. Isle of Man are unranked and have limited recent T20I data to show they can overturn that deficit.
No bet365 or bookmaker odds are available for this fixture via Statz. Individual hit rates are not available for these teams, so specific bet builder angles cannot be backed with data. Guernsey win is the cleanest angle from what Statz shows.
Bet builder for this fixture: Guernsey vs Isle of Man Bet Builder
Full projections: statz.ai/cricket/fixtures/69858/guernsey-vs-isle-of-man/projections
Competition overview: T20 Internationals on Statz