Freiburg vs Bayern Preview – Bundesliga Tips, Lineups and Key Stats

4th April 2026

Freiburg host Bayern Munich on Saturday afternoon (2:30pm KO) in a Bundesliga fixture that looks, on paper, like a mismatch – but the Europa-League-distracted Freiburg are unpredictable opponents at home.

Bayern lead the Bundesliga and are in rampant form: W D W W W in their last five, pumping in a mind-boggling 3.6 goals per game across 27 matches this season. Freiburg are eighth, their form reading W L D L W – patchy at best. But they beat Stuttgart last time out and are worth respecting at home.

Predicted Lineups

Freiburg line up in a 4-2-3-1: Atubolu; Makengo, Lienhart, Ginter, Treu; Manzambi, Eggestein; Grifo, Suzuki, Beste; Matanovic up front. Suzuki and Matanovic are in serious form right now – see below.

Bayern also 4-2-3-1: Neuer; Laimer, Tah, Upamecano, Stanisic; Pavlovic, Kimmich; L. Diaz, Karl, Olise; Gnabry. Kimmich orchestrating from deep, Olise and Diaz on the wings, Gnabry leading the line – goals are coming from everywhere.

The Numbers

Bayern’s numbers are absurd. They average 8.6 shots on target per game – most in the Bundesliga. Over 1.5 Goals has landed in 100% of their matches. Over 2.5 Goals: 90%. BTTS: 80%. Their last 10 games average 19.9 shots for, 11.6 against. Even when opponents press them, Bayern find a way through.

Freiburg average just 4.3 SOT per game and their clean sheet rate is 10% – the worst of any side in their bracket. They concede 1.6 goals per game on average. Over 2.5 lands in 50% of their games and BTTS is just 40%. They don’t always score – but Bayern will.

The Star Men

The standout performers from the H2H page in the last 5 games make for interesting reading. Freiburg striker Matanovic has 3 goals and 2 assists – he’s in form and could nick something against a Bayern defence that concedes. Suzuki in the number 10 role also has 3 goals and 2 assists in his last five. These two are worth watching for anytime scorer angles.

For Bayern, Olise has 2 goals in his last 5 and Laimer has 3 assists. Michael Olise to have a shot on target is a strong building block for any bet builder given his output – check live odds via the Statz bet builder tool.

Referee – Daniel Siebert

Referee Daniel Siebert averages 21.33 fouls and 3 yellow cards per game – a relatively low card rate. This won’t be a brutal physical match in terms of cards, but fouls will flow given both teams’ pressing styles.

Bet Builder Angle

Bayern to win and over 2.5 goals is the obvious structural angle given the data – Over 2.5 has landed in 90% of Bayern’s games and Freiburg’s clean sheet rate is 10%. But the more interesting builder is: Bayern win + Olise to have a shot on target + Matanovic or Suzuki to score anytime. Freiburg’s attackers are in form and Bayern are far from tight at the back (BTTS 80%).

See the Statz projections page as kickoff approaches for the full model view.

Verdict

Bayern win this. The data is overwhelming in their favour – best attack in the Bundesliga, league leaders, four wins in five. But Matanovic and Suzuki give Freiburg an angle – backing BTTS at 80% frequency for Bayern’s games makes sense. Goals are coming either way.