Fluminese vs Chelsea Betting Tips: Club World Cup 2025 Semi Final Preview

8th July 2025

Fluminese vs Chelsea Betting Tips

Can the Premier League side continue their momentum or will the Brazilian veterans pull off an upset? Fluminese vs Chelsea Betting Tips, full preview, betting angles, and key players.

The first semi-final of the new-look FIFA Club World Cup sees Fluminense face Chelsea at MetLife Stadium on Tuesday evening (8pm BST). The Brazilian side have built quiet momentum with wins over Inter Milan and Al Hilal, led by former Chelsea defender and national icon Thiago Silva. Chelsea have bounced back from a group stage loss to Flamengo, defeating Benfica and Palmeiras in the knockouts. With an average age of just 24—compared to Fluminense’s 30+ — and a major difference in squad value, the Premier League side are strong favourites.  Fluminense will fight hard to prevent an all-European final, but Statz.ai forecasts a Chelsea win, with patterns similar to their composed quarter-final victory over Palmeiras.

Fluminense Player Props: Replacements Stepping Up

Suspensions and injuries are expected to shake up the Fluminense backline, but replacements have stepped up throughout the tournament. Centre-back Ignacio has been especially effective, leading the team in tackles with an average of 3.67 per game. Further forward, Hercules has registered the second-most shots for Fluminense over their last ten matches, averaging 1.63 per game. But the standout value lies with Jhon Arias—Fluminense’s attacking star—who is 5/2 (Bet365) to have a shot on target from outside the box. All four of his shots on target this tournament have come from distance, including a stunning free-kick goal against Ulsan HD in the group stage. Arias ranks second among likely starters for projected shots on target.

Fluminense Bet Builder

Chelsea Preview: Momentum Building at the Right Time

After passing the Palmeiras test, Chelsea appear to be peaking at the right time. The addition of Joao Pedro brings extra firepower, and the new signing could make his first start after a 30-minute cameo in the quarter-final. With fellow newcomer Liam Delap suspended, Pedro is well-positioned to lead the line and is priced at 7/4 (Bet365) to score against his countrymen. Chelsea are projected to outshoot Fluminense 18 to 7, including a 6–2 edge in shots on target—identical to their quarter-final performance. Pedro Neto, priced at 10/11 (Bet365) to register a shot on target, ranks second among Chelsea players for shots on target this tournament. He’s averaging one per game, although he drew a blank in the last round. To go one further the Portuguese ranks first on the projections than Pedro, and at a slightly higher price of 9/4 (Bet365) to score.

Booking Watch

Now for our Fluminese vs Chelsea Betting Tips in terms of bookings, French referee François Letexier takes charge of this semi-final at the MetLife Stadium fresh from a fiery Round of 16 clash between Palmeiras and Botafogo, where he handed out eleven yellows and one red. This match projects for around five bookings, with Fluminense trio Ganso, Bernal, and Nonato leading the caution forecasts.

For Chelsea, Moisés Caicedo—returning from suspension—is the top card candidate, while Nicolas Jackson also returns and remains one to watch after disciplinary issues earlier in the tournament. Jackson is projected to commit the most fouls, just ahead of Caicedo, with Jhon Arias and Nonato also likely to be involved heavily in the foul count with the latter top fouler in the team this tournament.

Booking Bets (Bet365)

Best Bets: Chelsea Attack and Fluminense Value Picks

Chelsea’s attacking talent looks the strongest angle for this one, especially with age and team news working against Fluminense. The Ignacio–Hercules tackle-shot combo offers a solid base for a safer play, while adding a Chelsea goalscorer—like Joao Pedro or Pedro Neto—brings more upside for those chasing value. Ultimately, expect Chelsea to reach the final of the Club World Cup 2025.