Flamengo vs Chelsea: Club World Cup Group D Showdown
20th June 2025
Brazil’s Flamengo take on English side Chelsea on Friday (7pm BST) in Philadelphia, with the winner advancing to the next round of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Both teams started strong, with Chelsea beating LAFC 2-0 and Flamengo securing a 2-0 win over Esperance de Tunis. Flamengo vs Chelsea promises a tougher test, with South American versus European matchups proving to be the highlight of the tournament so far.
Flamengo’s Form, Fouls and Threats
The star performer last time out was Luiz Araujo, who contributed a goal and an assist. Despite his impact, Araujo ranks joint third in goal-scoring probability for this fixture. Arrascaeta leads with a 0.45 chance, followed by Pedro at 0.25, putting Araujo just behind them on Statz.ai. Araujo also committed five fouls and is projected to commit two more in this match, where he could be up against Reece James, who had three tackles in his opening fixture, winning all three— a key battle to watch. Alex Sandro and Nicolas de la Cruz are also expected to commit two or more fouls.
Former Chelsea midfielder Jorginho used all of his experience in the first game, completing 92 of his 99 passes, recording an assist, and drawing three fouls. He is projected to be fouled 1.25 times in this upcoming match according to Statz.ai.
Flamengo are in top form in the Brazilian Serie A, conceding just four goals in 11 matches and keeping four clean sheets, underlining their reputation as one of the toughest defences in the league.
Chelsea’s Need to Improve
Chelsea underwhelmed in their opening fixture and must raise their game against a tougher Flamengo side. Cucurella was heavily involved in physical duels, earning a yellow card for his only foul and being fouled twice. He is projected to draw around 1.92 fouls here (Statz.ai). Midfielders Enzo Fernandes and Moises Caicedo also look likely to draw fouls, with projections of 2.43 and 2.24 respectively, making them good bets for fouls won. In attack, Cole Palmer struggled to register a shot on target, with his only attempt off target and five shots blocked. He is projected to improve with 1.54 shots on target expected in this game. In our last blog, Statz projected Marc Cucurella & Pedro Neto to be fouled 1.5+ times.
Brazilians Likely to Avoid Defeat
Chelsea gave up three big chances against MLS side Los Angeles FC in their opener, exposing defensive weaknesses evident throughout the season. Backing Flamengo offers value, as the Brazilian side can certainly challenge their Premier League opponents. However, both teams may be content with a draw, which could be the most likely outcome.
The game is expected to be foul-heavy, with projections suggesting over 23 fouls will be committed. Flamengo’s physical style might find this number low, considering their first game featured 39 fouls, so a bet on fouls could be an interesting angle for bet builders. Whatever happens in Flamengo vs Chelsea, its going to be lively.