England vs Uruguay Predictions and Betting Tips – Friendly International

25th March 2026

Friday night at Wembley. England vs Uruguay, 7:45pm – a friendly international, but one with a twist. England’s first-choice players (Kane, Saka, Rice, Gordon, Burn, Guéhi) are being held back for the Japan game, so this is very much a second-string affair. That opens the door for Bellingham, Palmer, Rashford and Bowen to run the show. Uruguay bring recognisable names throughout.

Expected Lineups

England (probable): Pickford; Livramento, Stones, Maguire, Hall; Mainoo, Wharton; Palmer, Bellingham, Rashford; Bowen

Uruguay (probable): Muslera; Valera, R. Araujo, Gimenez, Vina; Valverde, Ugarte; Sanabria, De Arrascaeta, M. Araujo; Nunez

The Form Picture

Statz team data over the last 10 games shows England’s full-strength side averaging 2.5 goals per game, 17.6 shots and 7.2 shots on target – though bear in mind some of those first-choice names won’t feature. Uruguay average 0.8 goals per game, 10 shots and 2.7 shots on target. England’s underlying numbers are superior even accounting for the rotated XI.

Possession: England 72% (squad average), Uruguay 55.5%. Fouls: Uruguay commit more (12.2/game vs England’s 9.8) and pick up more yellow cards (1.8/game vs 1.0). That cards profile is worth noting.

England’s Attacking Threats

Jude Bellingham is fit again and in line to start – 5 shots on target in his last 10 games and 1 goal. He’s the creative engine in this lineup and the most likely match-winner if England turn on the style. Cole Palmer alongside him offers quality on the ball in the No.10 area.

Marcus Rashford has 5 shots on target in his last 10 games – a consistent SOT contributor when he’s in the mood. Jarrod Bowen leads the line alongside or in support of whoever plays through the middle – energetic, direct, and a threat in transition.

Uruguay’s Danger Men

Giorgian Arrascaeta is Uruguay’s standout – 3 goals and 7 shots on target in his last 10 games. The most likely source of a Uruguay goal. Darwin Nunez leads the line – 13 goals in 36 international appearances and a constant physical threat. Federico Valverde will be key in midfield, breaking up play and driving forward – 2 shots on target in 10 games, one of the more advanced-minded central midfielders in world football.

Ronald Araujo anchors the Uruguay defence. Manuel Ugarte – who has struggled for minutes at Manchester United – will be looking to make a statement in central midfield.

Fouls and Cards

Uruguay’s card profile stands out: 1.8 yellow cards per game average over their last 10. With Ugarte and Valverde in midfield – both combative, both with a tendency to foul – and Araujo at the back, there’s a legitimate angle here. Ugarte commits fouls regularly and in a physical friendly against a fluid England attack, he’s a yellow card candidate. England’s top foul-committer from the likely XI: Morgan Rogers is absent (held for Japan), so Mainoo and Wharton in the engine room are the ones to watch for bookings.

The Verdict

Even with a rotated England side, the home advantage and underlying quality point to an England win. Bellingham is the player of the tournament at his best – fit and starting, he’s the one to back. Uruguay can cause problems, Arrascaeta and Nunez are legitimate threats, but England’s depth is real. Over 1.5 goals looks solid; England win is the base bet.

Bet builder angles from the Statz Bet Builder Tool: Jude Bellingham 1+ shot on target, Rashford 1+ shot on target (5 in last 10), Ugarte to be booked (combative mid, 1.8 YC/game for Uruguay). Full H2H data at statz.ai/h2h/england-vs-uruguay.