EFL League One 2025/26 Season Preview

30th July 2025

EFL League One returns this weekend, with things underway on Friday night. The opening fixture sees Luton Town after back-to-back relegations take on League Two Playoff winners AFC Wimbledon in what should be a lively curtain-raiser. Statz.ai takes a look at the promotion and relegation candidates for the 2025/26 League One season and highlights some of the best season-long betting angles.

New Signings

As usual, the off-season has brought a flurry of loan signings, but a few teams have been willing to spend—though not quite on the scale of Birmingham’s splash last summer. Leyton Orient broke their transfer record to bring in El Mizouni from Oxford United, following Ethan Galbraith’s move to Swansea. Luton have also reinvested smartly, using the funds from Kaminski’s transfer to Charlton to sign replacement Josh Keeley from Tottenham, who impressed at this level last season while on loan at Orient. Meanwhile, Stockport County continue to be smart in the market, adding Finnish international Arttu Hoskonen to strengthen their defensive ranks. At the other end of the pitch Alfie May has joined Huddesfield Town as they will hope for a repeat of his 16-goal output at Birmingham City on their charge to the League One title last season.

Title Challengers

Statz.ai’s projected league table—weighted on historical data, wage bills, betting odds, and transfer activity—predicts a return to the Championship for duo Luton Town and Cardiff City. The former are the bookies favourites to win the league at 3/1 (Bet365), which the model thinks offers slight value for the side undoubtedly boosting some of the best talent in the league. Title outsiders Wycombe Wanderers offer up an intriguing 10/1 (Bet365) to finish in the top two and the best value to finish in the top six (12/5) for a side who finished fifth last season. They are projected to finish 3rd with summer recruitment from Europe catching the eye—Bradley Fink from Basel, Ewan Henderson from Beerschot and Mikki Van Sas a former Dutch youth international signed from Feyenoord.

 Statz.ai Top of the Table Tips

Promoted Teams

Of the four League Two teams coming up, it’s the opening-day side AFC Wimbledon, who are expecting to struggle most. Statz.ai predicts a swift return for the bookies favourites (1/1 Bet365). The outlook is more positive for fellow promoted sides Bradford and Doncaster, who are projected to finish in relatively comfortable positions—17th and 14th respectively. Port Vale, however, may need some final-day drama to stay up, with a 20th-place finish a distinct possibility.

Relegation Candidates

Rounding out the relegation places are Barclaysman Kevin Nolan’s Northampton, Exeter City and Burton Albion. Fan-owned Exeter City perhaps stand the best chance of avoiding the drop with a larger variable between worst and best point totals, while Port Vale and Burton Albion are neck and neck at 2/1 (Bet 365) to go down. There is a general consensus among pundits that Northampton will be pulling up the rear with a prediction to be the second lowest scorers and second leakiest defence it’s clear to see that they will be in trouble so a 13/2 to finish bottom (Bet 365) is a tempting offer backed up by data and experts.

Statz.ai Bottom of the Table Tips (Bet365)

Relegated Teams

Not much is expected from Plymouth Argyle on their return to League One, with the prediction model placing them 9th—around six points off the playoff spots. The outlook is much brighter for the other two relegated sides. As mentioned, Luton Town are legitimate title contenders, while Cardiff City are also expected to fare well, boasting a strong squad that includes talent like Rubin Colwill.

Best Statz Prices

Best prices against Bet365 odds