Durham vs Yorkshire Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz
28th May 2026
Two sides with perfect records so far – something has to give. Durham (3rd, 8 pts from 2, W2 L0) host Yorkshire (7th, 8 pts from 2, W2 L0) at County Ground, Derby on Thursday 29 May. First ball at 23:00 IST (18:30 BST). Both teams have won their opening two matches and sit in the top seven of the T20 Blast group stage. Check out the full Statz fixture page for live projections and data.
The Venue – County Ground, Derby
The County Ground has been tagged as a batting paradise by Statz. Across the last 21 T20s here (since May 2022), the average first innings score is 187.3 and teams batting first have won 52% of decided games. The average match total sits at 348.9, with 13.5 sixes and 29.6 fours per match. Pace bowlers take 66.2% of wickets at an economy of 9.41, while spinners are marginally tighter at 8.48 but claim just 28.6% of the scalps. The most recent game here saw Durham beat Derbyshire by 6 runs (203/8 vs 197/8) on 22 May 2026 – further proof that runs flow at this ground.
Form and Table
Durham sit 3rd with 8 points from 2 matches (W2 L0). Their last five results across seasons:
- W vs Leicestershire – 150/4 (14) beat 148/8 (20) (24 May 2026)
- W vs Derbyshire – 203/8 (20) beat 197/8 (20) (22 May 2026)
- L vs Hampshire – 195/6 (20) lost to 221/8 (20) (05 Sep 2025)
- W vs Northamptonshire – 204/1 (16.3) beat 203/5 (20) (18 Jul 2025)
- NR vs Leicestershire (15 Jul 2025)
Yorkshire sit 7th with 8 points from 2 matches (W2 L0). Their last five results:
- W vs Derbyshire – 195/8 (19.2) beat 194/4 (20) (24 May 2026)
- W vs Nottinghamshire – 169/3 (16.3) beat 167/7 (20) (22 May 2026)
- W vs Leicestershire – 188/8 (20) beat 185/10 (18.5) (18 Jul 2025)
- L vs Lancashire – 153/10 (19.1) (17 Jul 2025)
- W vs Durham – 128/10 (19) lost to 131/4 (18) – Durham won by 6 wickets (15 Jun 2025)
Both sides are unbeaten in 2026 so far, and both have shown they can chase successfully. Durham’s batting depth looks particularly strong with 203/8 and 204/1 in their last two completed matches.
Head-to-Head
8 meetings since 2022 (Statz data). Durham lead 4-3 with 1 no result. Durham have won the last two encounters – most recently beating Yorkshire by 63 runs at Riverside Ground (193/4 vs 130/10, 20 Jun 2025). Before that, Durham chased down 128 at York with 6 wickets in hand (15 Jun 2025).
At this venue, Durham have played 3 T20s since 2021, winning 2 and losing 1. Alex Lees is the top scorer here with 126 runs, while Callum Parkinson has taken 5 wickets. Yorkshire have no recorded T20 history at County Ground, Derby in Statz data.
Statz Projections
In the batting-first scenario (Durham bat), Statz gives Durham a 51.3% win probability versus Yorkshire’s 46.7% (2% tie/no result). The projected first innings total is 211.6, well above the venue average of 187.3 – reflecting the firepower in Durham’s top order. The projected match total of 408.2 is also significantly higher than the ground’s historical 348.9.
The P10-P90 range for the first innings runs from 182 to 243, while the match total range sits at 357 to 458. This is set up to be a high-scoring affair at a ground that regularly delivers big totals.
Check the full Statz projections page for interactive breakdowns.
Competition Season Leaders
Orange Cap (Most Runs – T20 Blast 2026):
- Martin Andersson (Derbyshire) – 156 runs in 3 innings
- James Rew (Somerset) – 140 runs in 2 innings
- Matthew Montgomery (Derbyshire) – 137 runs in 3 innings
- Sam Billings (Kent) – 112 runs in 2 innings
- Zak Crawley (Kent) – 111 runs in 2 innings
Purple Cap (Most Wickets – T20 Blast 2026):
- Jack Morley (Derbyshire) – 8 wickets in 3 innings
- Duan Jansen (Gloucestershire) – 7 wickets in 2 innings
- Fazalhaq Farooqi (Glamorgan) – 6 wickets in 2 innings
- Martin Andersson (Derbyshire) – 6 wickets in 3 innings
- Scott Currie (Hampshire) – 6 wickets in 2 innings
Durham Season Leaders: Alex Lees leads the runs with 99 at an average of 49.5 (HS 54). Graham Clark has 83 runs at 41.5 (HS 62). With the ball, Callum Parkinson has 5 wickets at 2.5 per match (best 3), followed by Matty Potts with 4 wickets (best 3).
Yorkshire Season Leaders: Jonny Bairstow tops the runs with 91 at 45.5 (HS 83). James Wharton has 60 at 30 (HS 55). Jafer Chohan leads their wickets with 3 in 2 innings (best 2).
Predicted XIs
Durham (based on XI vs Leicestershire, 24 May 2026):
- Alex Lees (c) – Batsman, LHB
- Graham Clark – Allrounder, RHB/Leg Break
- David Bedingham – WK, RHB
- Will Rhodes – Batsman, RHB
- Colin Ackermann – Batting Allrounder, RHB/Off Break
- Ollie George Robinson (wk) – WK, RHB
- Ben Raine – Bowler, LHB/Right-arm Fast-medium
- Matty Potts – Allrounder, RHB/Right-arm Fast-medium
- Kasey Aldridge – Allrounder, RHB/Right-arm Fast-medium
- Nathan Sowter – Allrounder, RHB
- Callum Parkinson – Bowler, RHB/Slow Left-arm Orthodox
Yorkshire (based on XI vs Derbyshire, 24 May 2026):
- Adam Lyth – Batsman, LHB
- Jonny Bairstow (c, wk) – WK, RHB
- James Wharton – Batsman, RHB
- William Luxton – Batsman, RHB
- Moeen Ali – Allrounder, LHB/Off Break
- Matthew Revis – Batsman, RHB/Right-arm Fast-medium
- George Hill – Allrounder, RHB
- Dominic Bess – Bowler, RHB
- Jafer Chohan – Bowler
- Andrew Tye – Bowler, RHB/Right-arm Fast-medium
- Hasan Ali – Bowler, RHB/Right-arm Fast-medium
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Captain: Ben Raine – Projected 101.3 Dream11 points. The allrounder is projected for 13.3 runs at a strike rate of 136.9 and 1.75 wickets at an economy of 8.82. His dual contribution makes him the standout captain pick.
Vice Captain: Matty Potts – Projected 91.8 Dream11 points. Another Durham allrounder projected for 1.69 wickets and useful lower-order runs (6.7 projected). He has taken 4 wickets in 2 matches this season.
Other top picks:
- Andrew Tye – 77.6 projected D11 points
- Kasey Aldridge – 76.5 projected D11 points
- Moeen Ali – 68.6 projected D11 points
Key Players
Alex Lees (Durham) – The Durham captain has been in outstanding form with 99 runs in 2 innings this season at an average of 49.5. Projected for 30.9 runs with a strike rate of 139.4. Lees scored 54 vs Leicestershire and 45 vs Derbyshire – consistently delivering at the top of the order. Also the top scorer at this venue with 126 runs.
Jonny Bairstow (Yorkshire) – The England international leads Yorkshire’s run charts with 91 runs at 45.5, including a blistering 83 vs Derbyshire. Projected for 25.3 runs at a strike rate of 150.7. Bairstow’s ability to accelerate through the innings makes him Yorkshire’s key threat on a batting paradise.
Callum Parkinson (Durham) – The left-arm spinner has 5 wickets in 2 matches this season (best 3), making him Durham’s leading wicket-taker. Projected for 1.19 wickets at an economy of 9.02. On a ground where spin goes at 8.48, Parkinson could be crucial in the middle overs.
Moeen Ali (Yorkshire) – The veteran allrounder scored 51 in his last outing and has 57 runs at 28.5 this season. Projected for 19.5 runs at a strike rate of 139.5 and 0.51 wickets. His off-spin could be valuable at a venue where spinners average an economy of 8.48.
Conditions
Clear skies forecast for County Ground, Derby with temperatures around 22 degrees Celsius at the start of play. Wind at just 4.8 km/h from the west-southwest. Humidity at 35% and zero chance of rain. Perfect conditions for batting – expect the bowlers to be under pressure throughout.
Verdict and Betting Angles
Durham get the nod here. They have the head-to-head advantage (4-3 in 8 meetings since 2022), have won both encounters in 2025, and Statz projects them as marginal favourites at 51.3% in the batting-first scenario. At 1.96 on bet365 (24/25), Durham offer a touch of value given the model’s slight lean their way. Yorkshire are 1.76 (19/25).
Betting angles from the Statz Bet Builder:
- Over 352.5 match runs – Statz projects a match total of 408.2 on a batting paradise that averages 348.9. The model gives this a 64.8% true probability versus 54.6% implied at 1.83. A standout value pick with a 10.2% edge.
- Alex Lees 20+ runs – The Durham captain is projected for 30.9 runs and has scored 54 and 45 in his two innings this season. On a batting paradise, the top-order bat looks well set for another contribution.
- Callum Parkinson 1+ wickets – Projected for 1.19 wickets with 5 in 2 matches this season. Spin economy at this ground is 8.48, so Parkinson should get through his overs and find chances.
- Jonny Bairstow 20+ runs – Projected for 25.3 runs at a strike rate of 150.7. Bairstow smashed 83 in his last outing and has 91 runs at 45.5 this season.