Cheltenham 2026 preview: Day 1

10th March 2026

And so to 2026.

The Cheltenham Festival is back for another year; the ground will ride good-to-soft and conditions should be perfect.

Credit must go to the organisers – the changes they have made in recent years have resulted in competitive, healthy fields.

Further amends would not go amiss – the Ryanair continues to dilute the Gold Cup (this year more so than ever), while the Mares’ Hurdle is still too tempting a carrot for top-class females to skip the Champion or Stayers’ Hurdles.

That’s a debate for another day though – let’s enjoy this year’s action. I will preview all 28 races through the week. My selections are guided by 10, 20, 30+ year trends, but ultimately they are my opinion alone. Tips are capitalised.

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1:20 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

It’s the proven types that usually come out on top in this contest – highlighted by the trend that 13 of the past 14 winners had won a Graded novice hurdle earlier in the season.

That leads me to OLD PARK STAR (NAP) who is fancied to run his rivals ragged here.

Three from three over hurdles (8 of the past 12 winners were unbeaten during the current campaign, including 4 of the last 5), he looks to be possessed with a perfect blend of speed and stamina that is often so crucial in a Supreme.

Tactically versatile, he’ll stalk the likely strong pace and commit for home early to run the finish out of his rivals.

Big chance and a fair price.

Talk The Talk has a nice profile and is respected; he’s clearly second-best on the trends but his best performance came on heavy ground and he’s by a soft ground sire. He’ll be staying on strongly but I wonder if this surface will catch him out.

Mighty Park arrives with a mighty reputation – compared to the great Faugheen at one stage – and that should obviously be heeded. But he’ll have to be very, very good to topple the favourite on just his second start over obstacles.

I would have run him in the 2m5f Turners on Wednesday; it’s JP McManus’ birthday on Tuesday though, and I reckon that may have played a part in this being the target.

The one I fear the most is El Cairos. He too arrives with a big reputation, with previous trainer Gary Moore and current saddler Gordon Elliott both waxing lyrical about his natural ability and in particular, his speed. He lacks the all-important graded experience over hurdles but the feeling is that he’s a very, very good horse and he might just chase the favourite home.

2:00 Arkle

Focus on the top two in the market.

LULAMBA meets every single key trend (bar being a 6-7yo) and is a confident selection.

Much like the Supreme, this is a clash of proven ability vs potential over fences. The selection is 3-3 over the larger obstacles and 6-7 in his career.

His only defeat came in the Triumph at this meeting last year, but there were mitigating circumstances for that (race was started 100-150 yards early and being prominent ultimately cost him).

Choose your trend and it’s likely to favour Lulamba over the superbly-talented Kopek Des Bordes:

• 19 of the past 25 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over fences
• Horses rated 161+ are 7-16 since 2012
• 16 of the past 23 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 15 of the past 20 winners had won at least twice over fences
• 12 of the past 18 winners were officially toprated (BHA Ratings)

It would be remiss of me not to mention, however…

• 5yo’s are 0-17 since 2007

However, Majborough should have won in 2025, Fakir d’Oudaries was second in 2020 and plenty of others have ran respectably enough to think that it can be overcome.

Kopek Des Bordes has been the subject of glowing reviews and is undoubtedly a superstar. But he lacks that critical experience over fences, has had an interrupted preparation and will carry a short-price tag into the race.

Everything points towards Lulamba.

2:40 Fred Winter

A new slot for this race, but the same competitive look as usual.

Don’t be afraid to swing for the fences in this race – there have been plenty of big-priced winners over the years although fancied horses have won three of the last four renewals.

The standout trends horse is HARWA who absolutely bolted up in an open-age maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse last time. They went a very fast pace that day and he will have gained valuable experience; I was quite taken by the way he put the race to bed.

Gordon Elliott has won this four times with horses priced at 25/1, 33/1, 15/2 and 18/1. I’ll cover a couple of his bigger-priced entries in BARBIZON and HARDY STUFF in the hope for a boilover.

Small stakes.

3:20 Ultima

This is as tough as it gets.

In recent years, this has gone to fancied runners (11 of the past 12 winners returned at 11-1 or shorter) but I’m left with more questions than answers when looking at the top of the market.

Jagwar needs to comprehensively prove his stamina, for all that he looks like he might stay this trip. Iroko may have one eye on the Grand National (currently trading as favourite). Myretown dotted up in this 12 months ago but he’s now 15lbs higher and arrives in fairly desperate form.

I’ll look elsewhere.

The headline pick is LEAVE OF ABSENCE who will love this ground. He’s a course winner and remains thoroughly unexposed for a 9yo (just 11 career starts, five of which he’s won). Anthony Honeyball’s horses are in fine form and Rex Dingle is a superb pilot; he might just have a bit more to give off a mark of 146.

Of the more fancied types, I’ll cover HYLAND (clear top trends pick) and the fascinating JOHNNYWHO; this race might be the secret to unlocking his undoubted potential.

Konfusion was tempting but I couldn’t throw in a fourth; he’s been a winning machine and there might still be more in the tank.

4:00 Champion Hurdle

The showcase event of the day and a rather open renewal.

They’ve come for Lossiemouth and you can see why; she’s a top-class mare and is 13-17 in an impressive career. Mares have a good recent record in this race (5-12 in the last ten years) and Willie Mullins has trained five winners of the contest (although only one of the last nine, interestingly).

I looked at her record in open 2m Grade 1 hurdles and her form figures read: 2F112 (40% win rate)

Compare that to the remainder of her profile: 111211111111 (92% win rate)

I just wonder if this combination of trip and track (on the Old Course, emphasising speed over stamina) might catch her out again.

Finally, the trends that ultimately put me off were that 31 of the past 36 winners won last time out, while 11 of the past 16 winners had run no more than ten times over hurdles previously.

Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth’s big rival, has long been considered one of the best horses that Gordon Elliott has ever trained. He seems to have got her back to her brilliant best, but there’s a lingering doubt about this track.

She was beaten at 5/6 favourite in the 2024 renewal of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (behind Golden Ace), before finishing out with the washing in last year’s renewal of this contest (sent off at just 5/2).

Those defeats are hard to forgive, but she is given maximum respect nonetheless.

I’m really not sure Golden Ace is good enough, and she’s been fortunate on a number of occasions to pick up Grade 1 races.

The obvious one is THE NEW LION and he’s selected to join a pantheon of Turners’ winners who have gone on to win the Champion Hurdle.

Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Faugheen all did the double, while Rock On Ruby won the Champion after finishing second in the 2m5f novice championship.

The New Lion won a decent renewal last year, and has been trained for this race. He has the requisite speed to lay up with them, and he’ll finish strongly. He has just the right profile to strike and claim hurdling honours for 2026.

Poniros is a horrible horse to weigh up. I’d imagine he’ll be ridden to pick up the pieces and if everything falls apart, he may just win it.

4:40 Plate

In a typically open renewal, darts are thrown at ZURICH, NO QUESTIONS ASKED and WILL THE WISE in that order of preference.

5:20 National Hunt Chase

This is essentially a brand new race, with the conditions having been changed dramatically in 2025.

ICEBERG THEORY is a really interesting runner for Paul Nolan.

He hasn’t run over a trip anywhere near this distance, but there’s enough hope to think that he might see it out under his talented 3lb claimer.

The form of his two victories this season couldn’t be working out better; there are a string of winners that have come from his races, and as such, a mark of 133 looks well within range if he can see out this trip.

Cover will be applied to NEWTON TORNADO, who represents connections who know how to win this race – both the latest iteration and previous versions.

He arrives with a classic profile and can be competitive.

Good luck for the opening day.