Chelsea vs Arsenal: Statz Betting Tips
29th November 2025
Chelsea welcome Arsenal in Sunday’s headline Premier League fixture, with this London derby taking on extra significance as it’s 2nd vs 1st. Chelsea have quietly been building momentum in recent weeks, putting earlier setbacks against Sunderland and Brighton behind them to emerge as a potential title challenger to Arsenal. Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone from strength to strength this season, barring their own minor hiccup against the Black Cats.
The Gunners comprehensively defeated Bayern Munich on Wednesday and now sit top of both the Champions League and Premier League tables. However, the Blues also arrive in form, coming off the back of an eye-catching 3–0 win over Barcelona, with young Brazilian winger Estevão quickly becoming the talk of the town.
Both sides are missing key players — Gabriel is unavailable at the back for Arsenal, while Cole Palmer is sidelined for Chelsea. Arsenal may, however, be able to call upon captain Martin Ødegaard once again for this clash.
Arsenal have had the better of recent meetings and are unbeaten in the last seven competitive fixtures between the sides. Chelsea’s most recent win in this matchup came in 2021, while their last home victory over their London rivals dates back to 2018. The red half of North London have shown little hesitation crossing the city and returning with a result.
Read on for Statz model projections and betting angles.
Chelsea vs Arsenal: Statz Predictions
On the back of a busy week for both clubs, the Statz data models point toward a tight affair, with a draw the most probable result. The market has Arsenal as narrow favourites, and given their dominance over many of their opponents this season, it is reasonable to assume that the away side could take all three points here.
Using our projections to create more value on Arsenal’s 6/5 (Bet365) to win, adding markets such as each team to receive a yellow card and over 6 corners gives 2/1 (Bet365). Increasing the corners line to over 8, which still fits within the projected totals, returns 3/1. Arsenal’s prowess from set pieces makes this angle particularly appealing.
Chelsea vs Arsenal: Player Props
With this game being a derby and both sides being equipped with the tools to make it scrappy at times, several players from Arsenal and Chelsea stand out in the tackle markets. Using Statz’s bet builder tool for tomorrow’s fixtures, Rice, Cucurella, Saka, Zubimendi and Timber all show an 80% recent hit rate for 2+ tackles. Projections also flag Caicedo, Hincapié, Gusto and Merino as strong candidates to reach 2+ tackles.
Combinations of the above players, once starting lineups are confirmed, could provide strong value opportunities.