Brazil vs France Predictions and Betting Tips – Friendly International
25th March 2026
Two of world football’s heavyweight nations go head-to-head in a high-profile friendly on Thursday 26 March, 8pm. Brazil vs France – both sides carrying injury and availability issues, both with one eye firmly on the World Cup. No projections available for this one, so everything is built from Statz form data, team stats, and the confirmed squads.
Team News
Brazil are without Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal), Alisson Becker (Liverpool) and Alex Sandro through withdrawal. Neymar was omitted by choice – Ancelotti preferring uncapped Premier League duo Igor Thiago (Brentford) and Rayan (Bournemouth). Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, Matheus Cunha and Joao Pedro are all in contention for the attacking starts.
France are without William Saliba (Arsenal, hamstring), Manu Koné (Roma) and Jules Kounde (Barcelona, hamstring). Otherwise Deschamps has strong options available, with Mbappé leading a formidable attack. The French captain is on 55 international goals – two shy of Giroud’s all-time record of 57.
Expected Lineups
Brazil (probable): Ederson; Wesley, Bremer, Marquinhos, D. Santos; Raphinha, Casemiro, A. Santos, Vinicius Jr; Cunha, Pedro
France (probable): Maignan; Gusto, Konate, Upamecano, T. Hernandez; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Olise, Cherki, Mbappé; Dembélé
The Form
Statz team data over the last 10 games tells a clear story. France average 2.4 goals per game; Brazil just 1.2. France generate 21.5 shots per game and 7.8 shots on target – Brazil manage 12.4 shots and 4.4 on target. Possession: France 63.6%, Brazil 58.7%. On every attacking metric, France are the superior side right now.
Goals – Who’s Scoring
From the expected starting lineups: Estêvão leads Brazil’s last-10 goal tally with 5 but is not in the starting lineup here. Of those who are, Vinicius Junior has 3 goals in his last 10 games and Raphinha has 1. Matheus Cunha has 1 goal in 10 – more of a creator in this system but always dangerous.
For France: Kylian Mbappé has 7 goals in his last 10 games and is chasing Giroud’s all-time scoring record. Michael Olise has 4 goals in 10. Dembélé has 1. Rayan Cherki is an exciting inclusion – the Lyon teenager making the step up to the senior squad.
Shots on Target – Bet Builder Angles
From the players who are actually starting, Mbappé is the standout by a distance – 25 shots on target in his last 10 games (2.5 per game). That frequency makes him the automatic first name on the bet builder for SOT markets.
Olise has 7 shots on target in 10 games. Dembélé has 6. For Brazil, Vinicius Junior leads with 9 shots on target in 10 (0.9/game) and Raphinha has 6. Both are legitimate SOT picks on the Brazil side from this lineup. Casemiro has 4 shots on target in 10 – mainly a defensive pick here but worth noting for total shots markets.
Fouls and Cards
Brazil average 12 fouls per game, France 10.8. Yellow cards: Brazil 1.7/game, France 1.6. Of the confirmed starters, Casemiro is Brazil’s most notable foul-committer with 5 in his last 10 games – always a card risk in a physical friendly. France’s Rabiot leads their foul chart with 5 in 10, while Tchouaméni has 5. Note that Koné – one of France’s biggest foul-committers (10 in 10) – is absent through withdrawal.
The Verdict
France are the form side on every metric and carry the more dangerous attack even with Saliba and Kounde absent at the back. Brazil’s defence – already missing Gabriel Magalhães – faces a genuine test from Mbappé chasing history. A high-scoring game is plausible; France to score first and Mbappé anytime are the headline picks.
Bet builder picks from the Statz Bet Builder Tool: Kylian Mbappé 2+ shots on target (25 in last 10, 2.5/game), Vinicius Junior 1+ shot on target (9 in last 10), Michael Olise 1+ shot on target (7 in last 10). Full data at statz.ai/h2h/brazil-vs-france.