Botafogo vs Palmeiras Betting Tips: All-Brazilian Club World Cup Knockout Face-off

28th June 2025

An all-Brazilian clash headlines Sunday’s action as Botafogo face Palmeiras in a heavyweight Round of 16 tie in Philadelphia at 5pm BST, here are the Botafogo vs Palmeiras Betting Tips. Brazilian clubs have lit up the FIFA Club World Cup 2025, with all four progressing to the knockout stages. Botafogo’s stunning win over UEFA Champions League holders PSG remains the shock of the tournament so far, and they may feel confident here after knocking Palmeiras out in last year’s Copa Libertadores quarter-finals en route to their own continental triumph. The statz.ai model makes Palmeiras slight favourites, but this one feels on a knife edge. Domestic familiarity adds extra spice and makes for an intriguing way to open the last 16.

Flair vs Tenacity
Going forward, Botafogo’s Igor Jesus has been the standout performer—leading the team in goals, shots, and shots on target. He tops the statz.ai projections in all three categories and looks essential to any hopes of a Botafogo win. On the other side, Palmeiras’ teenage star Estêvão is still awaiting his breakout moment in the tournament but hasn’t shied away from goal—averaging two mostly off-target efforts per game. The future Chelsea winger, however, is projected to provide the most assists in this clash.

Tackles Over Tricks
As the first knockout fixture, with big prize money on the line and two Brazilian rivals squaring off, this one could favour grit over flair. Botafogo’s Barboza leads the tournament in tackles so far with 13—more than double Palmeiras’ top tackler. Right-back Giay is projected for at least two and pairs well with Barboza in tackle-based bet builder angles. Palmeiras’ Moreno also comes into the mix with a projection of two tackles in what’s shaping up to be a combative midfield battle..

Fouls and Fireworks

Lets get to the Botafogo vs Palmeiras Betting Tips. Man in the middle François Letexier could be in for a busy evening, with both teams ranking in the top five for fouls per game—averaging 16 and 15 respectively. Letexier isn’t shy to reach for his pocket either, issuing 11 red cards across 28 matches this year. The statz.ai model projects a conservative 26 fouls and four yellows for this clash, but recent history suggests more—these two shared 40 fouls and three bookings each in their last league meeting in March. Expect a tense, tactical battle where discipline may tip the balance. Botafogo’s Cuiabano and centre-back Barboza, along with Palmeiras’ Richard Ríos, top the card projections. Ríos is also among the top for fouls drawn, averaging three per game so far in this tournament—a stat that could boost his booking involvement at either end.

Best Player Angles
Angles for fouls, tackles, and cards look the most favourable in this all-Brazilian clash, with Barboza tackles, Letexier cards, and Ríos bookings all in play. But adding some attacking flavour could boost odds—Igor Jesus remains Botafogo’s most likely scorer and is worth including in any forward-focused angle. Estêvão, while still searching for his big moment, leads the assist projections and continues to get into dangerous areas. Combining Jesus to score or shoot with Barboza tackles or Ríos card markets could build a strong bet builder base for what should be a tight, combative contest.