Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets Preview – The Hundred 2026 | Statz

22nd July 2026

Birmingham Phoenix welcome Trent Rockets to Edgbaston on Thursday for the 4th Match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:30 BST on 24 July. This is a season opener for both sides, with neither team having played a league match yet.

Both teams arrive at Edgbaston level on zero points, having not yet taken to the field in this year’s competition. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

Edgbaston is a fortress for the home side. Across the last 10 Hundred matches at this ground, the average match total stands at 251 runs with an average first-innings score of 125.5. Boundaries account for 61% of all runs scored – a ground that rewards aggressive cricket.

Seam bowlers have dominated here, taking 74.1% of wickets at an economy of 10.34 runs per over, while spinners have been more expensive at 12.43 but account for 20.7% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. Birmingham’s home record at Edgbaston since 2021 reads an impressive W13 L6 NR1 from 20 matches, with an average score of 17.6 per over. Visiting sides have struggled, posting just W1 L3 NR1 from five matches with an average of 15.1 per over.

Form and Head-to-Head

Both teams are starting fresh in The Hundred 2026. Neither has played a league match yet, so form from other competitions is the only guide. However, the head-to-head record between these sides tells a story. In 10 previous meetings, Birmingham have won 5 to Trent Rockets’ 4, with one no-result. The most recent clash came on 27 August 2025, when Trent Rockets edged home by 2 runs – TR 113/7, BP 111/9 – a tight contest that shows how competitive this fixture can be.

Looking at the last five meetings, the record is split evenly: Trent Rockets have won twice (most recently), Birmingham have won twice, and there has been one no-result. This is a fixture with nothing to separate the sides on recent evidence.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip.

If Birmingham bat first: Projected first-innings total of 136.7, match total of 263.7. Win probability – BP 41.8%, TR 51.7%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 112 to 161.

If Trent Rockets bat first: Projected first-innings total of 137.2, match total of 264.4. Win probability – BP 46.3%, TR 47.2%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 113 to 161.

Both projected match totals (264) sit well above the Edgbaston average of 251, suggesting the model rates both batting lineups highly. The projected first-innings totals of around 137 are also above the venue average of 125.5 – expect a strong start to the innings. Match total P10-P90 range: 230 to 300.

Competition Season Leaders

Top 5 Run-Scorers (The Hundred 2026)

Sam Curran (MI London) leads with 60 runs from one innings, followed by Nicholas Pooran (MI London) on 58. Mitchell Marsh (Sunrisers Leeds) has 41, Tom Alsop (Sunrisers Leeds) 31, and Ryan Rickelton (Sunrisers Leeds) 25.

Top 5 Wicket-Takers (The Hundred 2026)

Richard Gleeson (MI London) leads the Purple Cap race with 4 wickets from one match. Sam Curran (MI London) has 2, as does Brydon Carse (Sunrisers Leeds). Trent Boult (MI London) and Rashid Khan (MI London) have one each.

Likely XIs

This is a season opener for both sides, so confirmed lineups are not yet available. The squads have been verified by Statz, and both teams will select from their full rosters.

Birmingham Phoenix (Likely XI from squad)

  1. Will Smeed
  2. Jacob Bethell
  3. Joe Clarke
  4. Sean Dickson
  5. Jordan Thompson
  6. Rehan Ahmed
  7. Chris Wood
  8. Tom Helm
  9. Scott Currie
  10. Saqib Mahmood
  11. Mustafizur Rahman

Trent Rockets (Likely XI from squad)

  1. Ben Duckett
  2. Finn Allen
  3. Tim David
  4. Lewis Gregory
  5. Tom Banton
  6. Danny Briggs
  7. Mitchell Santner
  8. Ben Raine
  9. Craig Overton
  10. Matt Henry
  11. Mohammad Amir

These lineups are drawn from the verified squad sheets. Always check the fixture page on Statz for confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points from the Statz model:

Captain: Matt Henry (TR) – projected 87.8 pts. The New Zealand pace bowler is the standout fantasy asset in this match, with projected 1.7 wickets and an economy of 7.83. His consistency and strike-rate make him the safest captain choice.

Vice Captain: Craig Overton (TR) – projected 82.9 pts. The Somerset seamer offers dual value with projected 1.45 wickets and 8.3 runs, backed by an economy of 8.31. A genuine all-rounder in the bowling sense.

Also consider:

Key Players

Will Smeed (Birmingham Phoenix)

The young Birmingham opener has been a standout performer in The Hundred format. Across his career at this level, Smeed has accumulated 101 runs with 4 sixes and 12 fours from 7 matches. His ability to get off to quick starts makes him a natural opener, and he will be crucial to Birmingham’s powerplay strategy at Edgbaston.

Finn Allen (Trent Rockets)

The New Zealand batter brings explosive intent to the Rockets lineup. Allen has 72 runs from just 2 matches in The Hundred, with 4 sixes showing his strike-rate mentality. The Statz bet builder will reveal his hit rates, but his projected 26.1 runs in the model suggests he is primed for a big innings.

Rehan Ahmed (Birmingham Phoenix)

The England leg-spinner is a dual threat. Ahmed has 62 runs and 3 wickets from 2 matches in The Hundred, making him a genuine all-rounder. His projected 73.8 fantasy points and 16.1 runs in the model show he can contribute significantly with the bat as well as the ball.

Mitchell Santner (Trent Rockets)

The New Zealand all-rounder provides balance to the Rockets lineup. Santner’s left-arm orthodox spin and lower-order hitting make him a key player in the middle overs. His projected 59.8 fantasy points and 8.3 runs reflect his value across both disciplines.

Conditions

Edgbaston is forecast to be partly cloudy on match day with temperatures around 22 degrees Celsius. Humidity will be moderate at around 55%. No rain is expected, and wind will be light – ideal conditions for cricket throughout the evening.

Verdict and Betting Angles

The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip, with Trent Rockets holding a slight edge if Birmingham bat first (51.7% to 41.8%). However, if Rockets bat first, the match tightens considerably (47.2% to 46.3%). The head-to-head record is split, and both sides have equal reason for confidence.

Trent Rockets are the verdict pick at 49.5% win probability versus Birmingham’s 44.1%. The strength of the call is coin-flip – these are two evenly matched sides. Indicative odds from the major bookmakers have not yet been published for this season opener, but both teams should be close to evens.

The key to this match will be powerplay execution. Edgbaston rewards aggressive cricket, and whichever side can get off to a quick start – particularly the opening pair – will have a significant advantage. Birmingham’s home ground advantage is real (W13 L6 at Edgbaston since 2021), but Rockets have shown they can win here when it matters.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture: