Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction, Projections & Preview
5th August 2026
Birmingham Phoenix host Sunrisers Leeds at Edgbaston on Friday for the 24th Match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:30 IST (13:00 BST) on 7 August. For full head-to-head records, live projections and lineups, head to the fixture page on Statz.
Phoenix are in genuine trouble. Sitting 8th in the table on just 4 points from 4 matches (W1 L3), they have lost three of their last four and are staring down the barrel of an early exit. Leeds, by contrast, are climbing. In 5th place on 12 points (W3 L2), they have won three of their last five and are well positioned to push for the knockouts. This is a must-win for Birmingham and a chance for Leeds to cement their qualification hopes.
The Venue and Toss
Edgbaston is a fortress for batting in The Hundred. Across the last 21 matches here since May 2024, the average match total is 306.8 with an average first-innings score of 155.5. The ground has produced 12.3 sixes per match on average – a boundary-heavy pitch that rewards aggressive cricket. Seam bowlers have taken 74.8% of wickets at an economy of 10.89, while spinners have been more expensive at 12.67. The pitch is tagged as Balanced.
Birmingham have won 11 of their 19 matches at home since 2021, a strong record. Leeds have played just twice here, winning one and losing one. The toss carries weight here – teams batting first have won 40% of matches at Edgbaston, suggesting a slight advantage to chasing sides. Expect the captain winning the toss to bowl first and hunt a total under lights.
Form and Table
Birmingham Phoenix – 8th (P4 W1 L3, 4 pts)
Phoenix are in freefall. One win in four matches tells the story of a side struggling to find rhythm:
- 01 Aug vs WF (H): L – BP 137/9, WF 138/3 (96 balls)
- 30 Jul vs SB (H): L – BP 116/9, SB 128/8
- 26 Jul vs MSG (H): L – BP 100/10, MSG 187/5
- 24 Jul vs TR (H): W – BP 214/4, TR 204/7
Sunrisers Leeds – 5th (P5 W3 L2, 12 pts)
Leeds are the form side. Three wins from five with a positive net run rate of -0.018 shows a team firing on both cylinders:
- 04 Aug vs LS (A): W – SL 241/2, LS 204/6
- 02 Aug vs TR (A): L – SL 141/4, TR 146/4
- 28 Jul vs MSG (A): W – SL 184/2, MSG 181/3
- 25 Jul vs SB (A): W – SL 187/5, SB 182/5
- 21 Jul vs MIL (A): L – SL 143/10, MIL 144/3
Standings Snapshot
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trent Rockets | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Welsh Fire | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | MI London | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Manchester Super Giants | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Sunrisers Leeds | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Southern Brave | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | London Spirit | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Birmingham Phoenix | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Head-to-Head
This is a tight fixture. In five meetings between these sides, the record stands at 2-2 with one no-result. Leeds won the most recent clash on 4 August, chasing down 241 with ease (SL 241/2, LS 204/6). The no-result came in their previous meeting. Birmingham’s last win came in July. The series is genuinely balanced, but Leeds’ current form gives them the edge in this contest.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections make this a coin-flip with a slight lean to Leeds.
If Birmingham bat first: Projected first-innings total of 151.4, match total of 293.4. Win probability – BP 42.3%, SL 51.2%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 128 to 176.
If Leeds bat first: Projected first-innings total of 152.3, match total of 294.3. Win probability – BP 48.8%, SL 44.7%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 129 to 176.
The projected match totals (293-294) sit below the Edgbaston average of 306.8, suggesting both sides will face a disciplined bowling attack. Interestingly, Birmingham’s win probability improves to 48.8% if they bowl first – a clear toss advantage for the home side. Leeds’ win rate of 51.2% if they bat first shows they are the stronger chasing unit.
Predicted XIs
Birmingham Phoenix (based on XI vs Welsh Fire, 1 Aug 2026)
- Will Smeed
- Joe Clarke (wk)
- Rehan Ahmed
- Laurie Evans
- Donovan Ferreira (c)
- Mitchell Owen
- Sean Dickson
- Chris Wood
- Scott Currie
- Saqib Mahmood
- Usman Tariq
Sunrisers Leeds (based on XI vs London Spirit, 4 Aug 2026)
- Mitchell Marsh
- Ryan Rickelton (wk)
- Zak Crawley (c)
- Harry Brook
- Daniel Lawrence
- Matthew Revis
- Brydon Carse
- Matty Potts
- Nathan Ellis
- Reece Topley
- Abrar Ahmed
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:
Captain: Mitchell Marsh (SL) – projected 83.4 pts. The Australian all-rounder is in devastating form with 290 runs at 58.0 this season, hitting 20+ runs in 100% of his matches. A 182.5 strike rate and genuine wicket-taking ability make him the standout captain choice.
Vice Captain: Rehan Ahmed (BP) – projected 57.9 pts. The England leg-spinner has 77 runs and 5 wickets this season, with a 50% hit rate for 2+ wickets. His dual-threat status and projected 10.91 economy make him a reliable vice captain.
Also consider:
- Harry Brook (SL) – projected 43.4 pts – 154 season runs at 30.8, 60% hit rate for 30+ runs
- Ryan Rickelton (SL) – projected 49.7 pts – 169 season runs, 60% hit rate for 20+ runs
- Ben Dwarshuis (BP) – projected 69.4 pts – 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket across 3 matches
- Nathan Ellis (SL) – projected 68.4 pts – 7 wickets in 5 matches, 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket
Key Players
Mitchell Marsh (Sunrisers Leeds)
The standout performer in this fixture. Marsh has 290 runs at an average of 58.0 with a strike rate of 182.5 – he is hitting 20+ runs in 100% of his matches this season and 30+ runs in 100% of his last five. His last three scores of 63, 41 and 76 show a player in absolute peak form. With the ball, he provides balance through his all-rounder status. Marsh is the player Birmingham must contain.
Rehan Ahmed (Birmingham Phoenix)
Phoenix’s key player in a struggling side. The leg-spinner has 77 runs and 5 wickets this season, with a 50% hit rate for 2+ wickets. His economy of 10.91 is respectable in The Hundred format. In a match where Birmingham need to win, Rehan’s ability to take wickets in the middle overs could be crucial to restricting Leeds’ aggressive batting.
Nathan Ellis (Sunrisers Leeds)
The Australian fast bowler has been relentless. Ellis has 7 wickets in 5 matches with a 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket – he has taken at least one wicket in every single match this season. His economy of 9.7 is excellent, and his last three returns of 2, 1 and 2 wickets show consistency. Ellis is the spearhead of Leeds’ bowling attack.
Joe Clarke (Birmingham Phoenix)
Birmingham’s captain and most reliable batter. Clarke has 130 runs at 32.5 with a high score of 68. He hits 20+ runs in 75% of his matches and 30+ runs in 50% of matches. In a side struggling for form, Clarke is the anchor Phoenix depend on to build an innings.
Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Sunrisers Leeds are favoured at 48% win probability, with Birmingham Phoenix at 45.6%. This is a genuine coin-flip, but Leeds’ form, their strength in chases and Marsh’s extraordinary run of form tilt the balance slightly in their favour.
Phoenix are in crisis. One win in four matches and a net run rate of -1.855 tells the story of a side that has lost its way. Leeds, by contrast, are climbing – three wins in five with a squad that has genuine match-winners across all disciplines. The toss will matter here; if Birmingham win it and bowl first, they improve their chances to 48.8%. But Leeds’ ability to chase – demonstrated in their 241-run chase on 4 August – suggests they will be dangerous regardless.
The bookmakers are split. Indicative odds show Birmingham at around 2.0 and Leeds at 1.83, reflecting the tight nature of this contest. This is a match that could go either way, but Leeds’ momentum and Marsh’s form make them the slight favourites.
Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- Mitchell Marsh 20+ runs – 100% season hit rate. He has scored 20+ in every single match. The most bankable batting line in this game.
- Nathan Ellis 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate. The Australian has taken at least one wicket in all five matches. As reliable as it gets.
- Rehan Ahmed 2+ wickets – 50% season hit rate. The leg-spinner has taken two or more wickets in half his matches, with 100% hit rate in his last two.
- Harry Brook 20+ runs – 60% season hit rate. Leeds’ number four has hit 20+ runs in three of his last five matches.
Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds?
A: Sunrisers Leeds are favoured at 48% win probability, with Birmingham Phoenix at 45.6%. Leeds’ form (W3 L2) and Mitchell Marsh’s extraordinary run of 290 runs at 58.0 give them the edge, but this is a tight contest that could go either way.
Q: What is the projected match total?
A: The Statz model projects a match total of 293-294, below the Edgbaston average of 306.8. Both sides are expected to face disciplined bowling attacks under lights.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: The toss is crucial here. If Birmingham win and bowl first, their win probability improves to 48.8%. If Leeds win and bat first, their win probability rises to 51.2%. Expect the captain to bowl first and chase under lights.
Q: Is Sunrisers Leeds a good bet?
A: Leeds’ form, their strength in chases and Mitchell Marsh’s 100% hit rate for 20+ runs make them a solid bet at indicative odds of 1.83. However, nothing is guaranteed – Birmingham have home advantage and could surprise if they bowl first.