Bangladesh vs New Zealand Preview – T20I 2026 | Statz

1st May 2026

Bangladesh host New Zealand at Shere Bangla National Stadium in Mirpur for the third T20I of the series. Bangladesh lead 1-0 after the second game was abandoned – a dramatic six-wicket win at Cumilla secured by Litton Das and Towhid Hridoy in the penultimate over. Bangladesh sit 9th in the ICC T20I rankings (rating 223); New Zealand are 4th (rating 249). Toss at 14:00 BDT (09:00 BST) on 2 May. T20 Internationals 2026.

The Venue

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur. A ground that keeps scores low. Across the last 10 T20s here (from January 2026): average first innings of just 150.5, average match total 288.3. Pace is dominant – 75.2% of wickets at an economy of 7.42; spin takes 19.3% at 7.14. Bat-first sides win 50% of the time. The pitch tag from Statz: Bowler friendly. This is not a ground where batters dominate. Bangladesh’s record at Shere Bangla: 17 wins from 27 T20 matches played here. New Zealand have won just 2 from 5 visits to this ground.

Form and Rankings

Bangladesh – ICC T20I rank 9, rating 223. This series last 5: NR, W vs NZ (6 wkts), L, NR, W. Won the only completed game against NZ in this series. Playing at home at a ground they know well.

New Zealand – ICC T20I rank 4, rating 249. This series last 5: NR, L vs BAN, NR, W, W. Better ranked side, but have struggled so far in this tour. NZ’s Shere Bangla record (W2 L3) is a real concern.

This is a bilateral T20I series. New Zealand lead the ICC T20I rankings by a healthy margin but Bangladesh have historically made life very difficult for touring sides at this ground.

Head-to-Head

13 meetings since September 2021 (Statz data). Bangladesh 5 wins, New Zealand 6 wins, 2 No Results. The last meeting – the 2nd T20I in this series on 27 April – Bangladesh chased 183 in 18 overs (NZ 182/6), winning by 6 wickets with 12 balls to spare. At Shere Bangla National Stadium specifically: Bangladesh W2 L3 from 5 games against NZ at this venue.

Statz Projections

The model runs both scenarios. If Bangladesh bat first: BAN win probability 52.8%, NZ 45.2%. Projected first innings: 127.7 (P10: 108, P90: 148). Match total: 245.5. If NZ bat first: BAN win 54.6%, NZ 43.4%, projected first innings 125.2 (P10: 103, P90: 147), match total 242.7. Bangladesh are marginally favoured regardless of toss outcome – the model trusts their home advantage at this venue. The projected first innings (127-128) comes in well below the venue average of 150.5 from the last 10 games, suggesting an even tighter, low-scoring game is expected. See full Statz projections.

T20I Season Leaders

T20I Season 2025-26 – Top run scorers (all nations):

  1. Suryakumar Yadav (India) – 242 runs
  2. Shimron Hetmyer (West Indies) – 233 runs
  3. Ishan Kishan (India) – 215 runs
  4. Connor Esterhuizen (Netherlands) – 200 runs
  5. Zubair Ali – 200 runs

T20I Season 2025-26 – Top wicket takers (all nations):

  1. Keshav Maharaj (South Africa) – 12 wickets
  2. Mitchell Santner (New Zealand) – 10 wickets
  3. Matthew Humphreys – 10 wickets
  4. Abrar Ahmed (Pakistan) – 9 wickets
  5. Mohammad Nawaz (Pakistan) – 8 wickets

Bangladesh in this series: Runs – Towhid Hridoy 51 (avg 51, HS 51), Shamim Hossain 31, Parvez Hossain Emon 28. Wickets – Rishad Hossain 2, Mahedi Hasan 1, Shoriful Islam 1.

New Zealand T20I season leaders: Runs – Glenn Phillips 176 (avg 35.2, HS 78), Devon Conway 164 (avg 23.43, HS 60), Mitchell Santner 140. Wickets – Mitchell Santner 10 (avg 1.25, best 3), Kyle Jamieson 8, Ben Sears 8.

Predicted XIs

Bangladesh (based on XI vs New Zealand, 27 Apr 2026):
Parvez Hossain Emon, Tanzid Hasan, Saif Hassan, Litton Das (c, wk), Towhid Hridoy, Shamim Hossain, Mahedi Hasan, Rishad Hossain, Tanzim Hasan Sakib, Ripon Mondol, Shoriful Islam

New Zealand (based on XI vs Bangladesh, 27 Apr 2026):
Tim Robinson, Katene Clarke, Dane Cleaver (wk), Nick Kelly (c), Bevon Jacobs, Dean Foxcroft, Josh Clarkson, Nathan Smith, Ish Sodhi, Benjamin Lister, Matthew Fisher

Check the fixture page on Statz for any toss-related changes.

Dream11 Tips

Captain: Mahedi Hasan (BAN) – 95.7 projected Dream11 points
Vice-Captain: Nathan Smith (NZ) – 78.3 projected Dream11 points

Next 3 to consider:

Key Players

Mahedi Hasan (BAN) – The highest-projected Dream11 scorer in this match at 95.7 points. A genuine allrounder – took a wicket in the last game and offers with the bat in the middle order. At a bowler-friendly ground, his dual-threat role makes him critical. Statz projects him as this game’s standout performer.

Dane Cleaver (NZ) – Hit rate for 20+ runs in this series: 100% (3 from 3). Projected Dream11 points 45.4 but that hit rate is exceptional. If NZ are to win, their keeper needs to fire at the top. Scored 51 in the previous game at Shere Bangla.

Rishad Hossain (BAN) – Top wicket taker in this series for Bangladesh with 2 wickets in the one completed game. Leg-spin at a bowler-friendly ground in Mirpur is a potent weapon. The Statz model projects bowling contributions heavily at this venue.

Nathan Smith (NZ) – Projected at 78.3 Dream11 points and in the recent XI. NZ’s bowling allrounder threat. Has genuine pace to go with his batting contributions. Second highest-projected scorer in this game from either side.

Conditions

Weather data unavailable from Statz for this venue. Based on Mirpur ground records, expect warm and humid conditions typical for May in Dhaka. No weather concerns reported.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Bangladesh are the pick here. Two factors: home ground advantage at a venue where they’ve won 17 of 27 T20s, and NZ’s poor Shere Bangla record (W2 L3). Statz models give BAN 52-54% win probability regardless of toss. The low projected totals (127-128 first innings) suit Bangladesh’s spin-heavy bowling attack. Bangladesh to win. Take BAN at 1.615 (8/13) on bet365.

Bet Builder angles (via Statz Bet Builder):

Full projections, lineups and bet builder tool: statz.ai/cricket/bet-builder.