Bangladesh vs New Zealand Preview – T20I 2026 | Statz

28th April 2026

Bangladesh host New Zealand in the second T20I of the series at the Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium, Chittagong, on Wednesday 29 April. Toss at 1:30 PM IST (9:00 AM BST), with play getting underway shortly after. Bangladesh took a 1-0 series lead with a six-wicket win in game one – New Zealand will be hunting an immediate response. This is a low-scoring spin-friendly track and the models have this closer than the market suggests. Find full Statz projections here.

The Venue

The Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Chittagong is a ground that strongly favours the home side. Bangladesh have played 13 times here, winning 8 of them. New Zealand’s record at this venue is just one appearance – a defeat. The average match total across 10 recent T20Is at this ground is 303.4 runs, with top-order batters dominating – the top scorer has come from the top order in 9 of the last 10 games here.

Seamers have been the more effective wicket-takers (60.8% of wickets at a 7.82 economy) but spin plays an important support role (33.1% wickets, 7.99 economy). Don’t expect fireworks – this pitch typically produces measured T20 cricket, and Statz has the first innings projected at 155 runs if Bangladesh bat first.

Form and Table

Bangladesh – Last 5:

Three wins from five overall, including that confidence-boosting six-wicket win over NZ on Sunday. They are 1-0 up in this series.

New Zealand – Last 5:

New Zealand have lost three of their last five T20Is and are 0-1 down in this series heading into a must-win game two.

No points table applies in this bilateral series.

Head-to-Head

These two sides have met 12 times in T20Is since March 2021 (Statz data). Bangladesh lead the head-to-head 5-6 in favour of New Zealand (plus one no result). The recent history is tight – Bangladesh claimed two wins from four meetings in New Zealand in December 2023, and dominated a home series 4-1 back in September 2021 before NZ pushed back with wins in both away T20Is in March 2021.

From the last 5 H2H meetings: W, L, NR, W, L (from Bangladesh’s perspective). Historically NZ edge this fixture, but on home soil Bangladesh are competitive – and that big six-wicket win in game one underlines how much the home conditions matter.

Statz Projections

Statz projects this as a closely-contested T20I, particularly in the Bangladesh-bats-first scenario. If Bangladesh win the toss and bat, the model gives them a marginal edge.

Scenario Bangladesh Win % New Zealand Win %
Bangladesh bat first 53.6% 44.4%
New Zealand bat first 56.5% 41.5%

Projected first innings (BAN bat first): 155 runs – this is a modest T20I total on this ground, reflecting the conditions. The P10/P90 range spans 131-179, so anywhere in that corridor is live.

Full player-level projections and scenario modelling: statz.ai/cricket/fixtures/69606/bangladesh-vs-new-zealand/projections

Competition Season Leaders

Across the T20 Internationals competition this season, the leading run-scorer (Orange Cap) is Suryakumar Yadav with 242 runs from 5 innings. The Purple Cap belongs to Keshav Maharaj with 12 wickets from 8 innings.

New Zealand’s Mitchell Santner sits second in the overall wickets chart with 10 wickets – he will be a key weapon in Chittagong. For New Zealand’s batting, Glenn Phillips leads their season tally with 176 runs at an average of 35.2.

Predicted XIs

Bangladesh – based on XI from 27 Apr 2026 vs New Zealand:

  1. Parvez Hossain Emon (wk)
  2. Tanzid Hasan
  3. Saif Hassan
  4. Litton Das (c, wk)
  5. Towhid Hridoy
  6. Shamim Hossain
  7. Mahedi Hasan
  8. Rishad Hossain
  9. Tanzim Hasan Sakib
  10. Ripon Mondol
  11. Shoriful Islam

New Zealand – based on XI from 27 Apr 2026 vs Bangladesh:

  1. Tim Robinson
  2. Katene Clarke
  3. Dane Cleaver (wk)
  4. Nick Kelly (c)
  5. Bevon Jacobs
  6. Dean Foxcroft
  7. Josh Clarkson
  8. Nathan Smith
  9. Ish Sodhi
  10. Benjamin Lister
  11. Matthew Fisher

Dream11 Tips

Captain and vice-captain picks from players confirmed in the recent XI (in_recent_xi), ranked by Statz projected Dream11 points:

Captain (C): Mahedi Hasan – Statz projects him at 90.1 Dream11 points, the highest of any player confirmed in the recent XI. He offers all-round value – 1.42 projected wickets and 13.3 runs from position 7. His consistency in Bangladesh home conditions is excellent and he is one of the key wicket-takers the Tigers will lean on.

Vice-Captain (VC): Tanzim Hasan Sakib – projected at 80.0 Dream11 points. A genuine pace threat with 1.39 projected wickets and a solid economy of 7.66 per Statz. He took a wicket in game one and should be a regular contributor in this attack-heavy XI.

Build your own team using the Statz Bet Builder tool.

Key Players

Mahedi Hasan (Bangladesh) – The standout all-rounder in this fixture. Statz projects 1.42 wickets and 13 runs. His 1+ wicket hit rate in this competition is strong, and on a spin-friendly surface in Chittagong he should be central to Bangladesh’s bowling plans. One to captain in Dream11 (see above).

Towhid Hridoy (Bangladesh) – The leading scorer at this venue for the home side with 380 runs from 13 appearances. Hit 51 in game one to underline his form. Statz projects 32.3 runs for him if Bangladesh bat first. He is the venue’s top scorer and knows this pitch better than anyone in the Bangladesh middle order.

Ish Sodhi (New Zealand) – Has a 1+ wicket hit rate of 83.3% across the season (5 of 6 innings). On this spin-friendly surface he could be the difference-maker for New Zealand. Statz projects 1.1 wickets for him. If NZ are going to win this game, spinners taking early wickets is the most likely route.

Dane Cleaver (New Zealand) – Hit 51 at this venue in game one and leads the New Zealand batting chart this series with 99 runs from 3 innings. His 20+ run hit rate is 100% this season (3 of 3 innings). If NZ are going to post a decent total or chase down a target, Cleaver needs to fire.

Conditions

Weather data is not currently available via Statz for this venue. Chittagong in late April can be warm and humid with the possibility of passing showers – typical late pre-monsoon conditions for Bangladesh. No washout risk is expected but it is worth monitoring the local forecast before the toss. If rain does arrive, dew could also be a factor in the second innings, which would favour the chasing side.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Bangladesh are the side in form. They are playing at home on a spin-friendly track, won the toss and game one comfortably, and their bowling attack – led by Mahedi Hasan, Rishad Hossain and Shoriful Islam – is well-suited to these conditions. The Statz model gives Bangladesh the edge in both scenarios, with NZ’s overall win probability sitting around 41-44% depending on who bats first.

The market has Bangladesh at 1.46 (bet365) – short but defensible given the home advantage, form edge and conditions. New Zealand are 2.57.

Pick: Bangladesh to win

Bet365 Odds (at time of writing):

Betting Angles:

  1. Mahedi Hasan – 1+ wicket: Statz projects 1.42 wickets in this fixture. On a turning pitch at home he is a consistent wicket-taker and his season hit rate supports this market.
  2. Ish Sodhi – 1+ wicket: 83.3% hit rate (1+ wickets) this season, 5 from 6. The spin-friendly Chittagong surface is tailor-made for a leg-spinner of his quality. Worth a look in the anytime wicket market.
  3. First innings under 165.5: Statz projects a first innings of 155 (P90 of 179). The ground historically plays moderate – 7 of the last 10 first innings here came in at 165 or below. This is a good angle if batting conditions are as expected.
  4. Bangladesh to win and under 300.5 match total: Statz projected match total is 298.6 – just below 300. A Bangladesh win in a low-to-mid 280s/290s total game is the model’s central scenario. Look to combine these in a same-game multi.

Build your own angles using the Statz Bet Builder for this fixture.

Odds correct at time of writing. Always gamble responsibly.