Athletic Club vs Villarreal: La Liga Preview, Predictions and Bet Builder Tips

10th April 2026

Athletic Club host Villarreal at San Mames on Sunday evening in what shapes up as a tight one. The Lions are 11th in La Liga and badly need the points, while Villarreal arrive in fine fettle – four wins from their last five. This is not a gimme for either side.

Form and Lineups

Athletic Club have been inconsistent. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W – a patchy run that has left them sitting mid-table and sweating on the top half. At San Mames they tend to be more solid, and the crowd will expect a reaction after back-to-back away losses.

Villarreal on the other hand are flying right now. W-W-W-L-W is the form guide and they look like a team that knows what it’s doing. Ayoze Perez has been one of their standout performers, and Santi Comesana has been a driving force in midfield.

Lineups are not yet confirmed by Statz, so check back closer to kick-off on the Athletic Club vs Villarreal lineups page for the full predicted XI. What we do know from recent squads is that Dani Vivian anchors the Athletic backline and Inigo Lekue provides energy from wide right.

Statz Projections

The numbers favour Athletic Club at home. Statz projects them for 1.35 goals to Villarreal’s 1.24 – close, but the home side edge it. The shots battle is more decisive: Athletic are projected for 11.42 shots to Villarreal’s 8.93, with the shots on target numbers reading 3.76 vs 3.23 in Athletic’s favour.

Corners follow the same pattern – Athletic 4.05 vs Villarreal 2.91. If you’re looking for a territorial angle, Athletic are expected to dominate possession of the box.

The foul projections are worth noting: Athletic are projected at 9.96 fouls per game, Villarreal at 8.96. Yellow cards are tight – Athletic 1.80, Villarreal 1.94. Both sides get into the book at a similar rate, which ties into the referee section nicely.

Referee: Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso

Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso takes charge of this one. His stats are striking – he averages just 3.36 fouls per game and an extremely low 0.07 yellow cards per game. That makes him one of the most lenient officials in La Liga this season.

If you are stacking yellow card bets, be warned. This is not the referee for that. Hernandez Maeso lets the game flow and rarely reaches for his pocket. Any bookings markets should be approached with serious caution here.

Bet Builder Tips

Statz has a four-leg bet builder for this fixture landing at 5.22 combined. All four legs carry a 100% hit rate in the last five games. Here is the breakdown:

All four have hit in every one of their last five appearances. The combined 5.22 price represents decent value for a four-legger when every individual leg has been this consistent.

Build it on bet365 or your preferred platform. See the full bet builder breakdown on Statz here.

The Angle

Athletic at home with superior shot projections, against a Villarreal side that will be bold going forward. With Hernandez Maeso officiating, this is not a game for booking cards. Instead, lean into the activity markets – tackles and fouls are both projected to land, and the 100% hit rates on all four legs make the 5.22 bet builder genuinely compelling.

Athletic’s home form and the Statz projection edge make them a reasonable lean, but Villarreal’s current run of form means this is far from certain. The bet builder is where the real value sits.

Check all the data yourself on the Athletic Club vs Villarreal H2H page.