Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid: Predictions, Betting Tips and Preview
2nd December 2025
Athletic Bilbao host Real Madrid on Wednesday in a tasty 6 p.m. (UK) La Liga fixture. Real Madrid boss Xabi Alonso is already feeling some pressure after three consecutive away draws in matches they were expected to win. The latest came at the weekend against third-bottom Girona, where Madrid needed a second half Mbappé penalty to escape with a point. Bilbao’s form hasn’t been convincing either, as they continue to struggle with the demands of balancing Champions League football and the league for the first time. Adding another layer to the narrative, this match comes just 24 hours after Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid — meaning Real could walk onto the pitch trailing the champions by four points.
Read on for the Statz projections and betting tips.
Team News and H2H
Bilbao’s weekend goalscorer Robert Navarro may miss out through injury, while Real Madrid remain without Alaba, Carvajal and Huijsen.
The good news for neutrals: this fixture doesn’t tend to produce dull affairs. There hasn’t been a 0–0 in the last 14 meetings, and while last season saw one win each, that isn’t the usual pattern. Real Madrid have dominated this matchup historically, winning 22 of the last 30 league encounters, with six draws and just two Bilbao victories in that period.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid: Statz Predictions
With history on their side in this fixture, Real Madrid are expected to return to winning ways, but at 4/5 (Bet365) after three successive away draws, it’s hard to get overly excited by the price. Statz show Madrid clearly ahead in both corners and shots when comparing the two sides. Combining Real Madrid most corners and most shots with Draw or Real Madrid (Double chance) boosts the value to 2/1 with Bet365.
There’s logic behind it too: Real Madrid have recorded more corners than their opponent in nine of their last ten La Liga matches — and the same hit rate applies for total shots across that period.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid: Player Props
With game state always a risk when backing a team to lead multiple statistical markets, a lower-risk angle is to take just one of those metrics and pair it with a player prop instead. Bilbao centre-back Dani Vivian to commit 1+ foul looks a strong option to build around. He commits the most fouls of the expected Bilbao starters and also leads the side in bookings, if you’re looking to push the price further. Vivian 13/5 (Bet 365) to be booked.