Arsenal vs Leverkusen: Predictions, Betting Tips and Preview

17th March 2026

One-all going into the Emirates. This is exactly what the Champions League last 16 should look like.

No away goals rule to hide behind, no dominant aggregate lead to defend. Arsenal and Leverkusen head into tonight level, with everything to play for. Whoever wants it more goes through. Simple as that.

The Tie

The first leg in Germany was tight, tense, and finished 1-1 – a result that flattered neither side and gave both something to think about. Arsenal will be backed by a raucous Emirates crowd tonight, and at home, in a knockout game they can win, this Arsenal side is dangerous.

Statz projects them to be significantly the stronger team on the night: 2.41 expected goals to Leverkusen’s 0.81. That’s a big gap. Arsenal are generating 14.39 shots to Leverkusen’s 6.51, and 5.48 shots on target to Leverkusen’s 2.38.

Leverkusen come to defend. They know that.

The Key Battles

Gyokeres leads the Arsenal line – and in a 4-2-3-1 with Saka, Eze, and Martinelli behind him, the creativity around him is genuine. Saka vs Grimaldo on the right flank is the matchup to watch: Grimaldo pushes forward for Leverkusen, which means there’s space in behind when Arsenal transition.

Leverkusen’s 3-4-2-1 gives them defensive solidity but relies on Poku and Maza to carry the ball in the half-spaces. Against Rice and Zubimendi sitting deep for Arsenal, that’s not going to be easy.

Sam’s Tip

Arsenal to win. The Statz model backs it heavily – 2.41 projected goals at home in a tie they’re level in. The Emirates will be bouncing, Gyokeres will be hungry, and Leverkusen have a tough job keeping this out.

Predicted Lineups

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya; Hincapié, Magalhães, Saliba, Mosquera; Rice, Zubimendi; Martinelli, Eze, Saka; Gyökeres

Leverkusen (3-4-2-1): Blaswich; Tapsoba, Andrich, Quansah; Grimaldo, A. García, Palacios, Poku; Maza, Tillman; Kofane