Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Premier League Preview, Predictions and Bet Builder Tips

10th April 2026

Arsenal are top of the Premier League and in ruthless form. Bournemouth are drawing every game they play. Something has to give at the Emirates on Saturday – and Statz has the full breakdown.

Form and Lineups

Arsenal sit top of the table on 70 points from 31 games, winning 21, drawing 7 and losing just 3. They head into this on the back of four wins in their last five – the only slip a draw. Title-chasing form, basically.

Bournemouth are 13th on 42 points, and their last five games make for odd reading: D D D D D. Five draws on the bounce. They are not losing, but they are not winning either. Andoni Iraola’s side have turned Groundhog Day into a tactical system.

Lineups are not confirmed yet. Statz predicted starting XIs will be published closer to kickoff on the lineups tab – check the lineups page for updates. Viktor Gyokeres leads the line for Arsenal; Gyokeres has 11 goals in 29 Premier League appearances this season and is firmly in the title-run conversation.

Statz Projections

Statz AI models give Arsenal a projected 2.22 goals and 15.43 shots for this one. Bournemouth are projected at 0.83 goals and 6.87 shots. The gulf is significant – Arsenal are generating roughly twice the volume of chances in this model.

Team Goals (Proj) Shots (Proj)
Arsenal 2.22 15.43
Bournemouth 0.83 6.87

Full advanced projections – including SOT, corners, fouls and yellows – are available to Statz subscribers on the projections tab.

Referee: Michael Oliver

Michael Oliver is taking charge. He averages 22.39 fouls per game and 2.91 yellow cards across 23 matches this season. That puts him above the average for fouls – expect a physical contest to be called tightly. Oliver hands out a yellow every 31 minutes on average this season, so disciplinary bet builder legs have solid context here.

Bet Builder Tips

All four legs below are taken directly from the Statz Bet Builder tab for this fixture. Combined price is 7.12 with bet365.

Leg 1 – Marcus Tavernier: 1+ Shot on Target

Marcus Tavernier has landed 1+ shot on target in all 5 of his last 5 games. Hit rate: 100%. Averaging 1.4 SOT per game over that stretch. He is active and direct in the final third. Odds: 11/8 (2.38).

Last 5 form: YES – YES – YES – YES – YES

Leg 2 – Alex Scott: 1+ Shot

Alex Scott has registered 1+ shot in every one of his last 5 appearances. Hit rate: 100%. Averaging 2 shots per game across that run. At 2/5 (1.40), he is the anchor leg of this builder. Odds: 2/5 (1.40).

Last 5 form: YES – YES – YES – YES – YES

Leg 3 – Gabriel Magalhaes: 1+ Tackle

Gabriel Magalhaes has made 1+ tackle in each of his last 5 games. Hit rate: 100%. Averaging 1.8 tackles per game. At 4/11 (1.36), he is as close to a lock as you get in this kind of market. Arsenal defending a lead means Gabriel is always putting in the graft. Odds: 4/11 (1.36).

Last 5 form: YES – YES – YES – YES – YES

Leg 4 – Kai Havertz: 1+ Shot on Target

Kai Havertz has landed 1+ SOT in 4 of his last 5 games. Hit rate: 80%. Averaging 1 SOT per game over that period. The one miss keeps this at 4/7 (1.57) – respectable odds for a player who keeps testing goalkeepers. Odds: 4/7 (1.57).

Last 5 form: YES – NO – YES – YES – YES

The Combined Bet Builder

Combined price: 7.12 with bet365. Build this at bet365.

The Angle

Arsenal at home, top of the table, against a side who have drawn five in a row – the trajectory here is pretty obvious. Statz projects 2.22 goals for the Gunners, which reflects their consistently dominant home displays this season. The model does not have Bournemouth scoring much here either at 0.83.

For the bet builder, the Bournemouth legs (Tavernier SOT, Scott shots) are compelling at 100% hit rate each. Even against Arsenal’s backline – possibly the best defence in the division – those midfielders will see the ball enough to get something away. The Gabriel Magalhaes tackle leg is as reliable as it gets for a home defender up against attacking pressure. Havertz rounds it out with 80% consistency.

If you want a single bet, Arsenal to win at 4/9 is thin juice. The bet builder at 7.12 is where the value sits.

Check all the data yourself at statz.ai. Please gamble responsibly.