Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Predictions, Betting Tips and Odds – Europa League

6th May 2026

Two English sides, one Europa League semi-final. Villa host Forest on Thursday night with a place in the final on the line – and the data makes for genuinely interesting reading.

Villa sit 2nd in the UEL table on 21 points (W7 D0 L1, GD +8). Forest are 13th on 14 points (W4 D2 L2, GD +8) – but do not let the standings fool you. Forest have not lost in their last 10, winning seven. That is not a side coming here to make up the numbers.

Lineups and Player News

Predicted lineups are confirmed on both sides. Villa have 11 named, Forest have 11 named. Check the latest lineups on Statz.

Recent Form

Aston Villa: LWWWDWWLLL – W5 D1 L4 in their last 10, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Patchy, but their UEL form tells a different story – they are still in this for a reason.

Nottingham Forest: DWWDDWWWWW – W7 D3 L0 in their last 10, scoring 21 and conceding just 5. The best defensive record of any team left in this competition. Chris Wood is their projected top scorer at 0.31 per game – modest, but Forest do not need goals when they do not let them in.

Statz Projections

Statz projects Villa to edge it – projected scoreline 1.69-1.08. Tammy Abraham is Villa’s top projected scorer at 0.52. But with Forest’s defensive numbers, this has low-scoring semi-final written all over it.

See full team projections: statz.ai/projections/team – Europa League.

Interesting Player Stats

Morgan Rogers leads Villa for fouls committed over the last 10 (16, 1.60/game). Nicolas Dominguez leads Forest with 13 (1.30/game). A physical midfield battle incoming – useful context for card and foul markets.

Matty Cash has averaged 3.6 tackles per game over his last five. That is the kind of engine-room reliability you build a bet builder around.

Betting Angles

Our Statz Bet Builder has a 4-leg SGP at 9.39 on bet365 – all four legs backed by 80%+ hit rates from the last five games:

Combined: 9.39/1 – Add to bet365 betslip

Summary

Forest’s defensive record is the story of this tie. Seven wins, zero losses in their last ten – they are not here by accident. Villa have the home advantage and project to score more, but this feels like a match where the goals stay low and the margins are fine. The bet builder leans into the players who show up every week regardless of the scoreline – Cash’s tackles, Gibbs-White’s volume, Jesus and Williams making things happen on the wings.

Full stats and live odds: statz.ai/h2h/19683250