DR Congo vs Uzbekistan Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026

26th June 2026

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan - World Cup 2026 match preview

Two games in and neither DR Congo nor Uzbekistan have a win to show for it. This is a straight shootout for survival in Group H – and for Uzbekistan, sitting bottom on zero points with a -7 goal difference, it might already be too late. But write-off games at the World Cup at your peril.

Match Context

DR Congo sit third in the group on 1 point after a draw and a defeat. Their goal difference of -1 is manageable, and a win here would throw them right back into the conversation for the knockout rounds. Their recent form reads four wins, three draws and three defeats from their last ten – patchy, but there is quality in this squad when the mood takes them.

Uzbekistan are rock bottom on zero points with a -7 goal difference after two defeats. Their last ten is not pretty either – three wins, two draws and five losses with 10 scored and 15 conceded. They need a result and they need it now, but the numbers are stacked against them.

Check the full head-to-head breakdown on Statz for the complete picture.

Key Stats

Statz projections have DR Congo as favourites here with a projected scoreline of 1.32 – 0.96. That gives us a combined expected total of 2.28 goals – pointing towards a tight, low-scoring affair rather than a goal fest. DR Congo’s defensive record in their last ten (6 conceded) is significantly better than Uzbekistan’s (15 conceded), and that gap could be the difference.

Referee Felix Zwayer averages 3.00 yellow cards and 15.25 fouls per game across his four World Cup matches. That fouls-per-game number is notably high – expect plenty of niggly challenges in what promises to be a desperate encounter.

Players to Watch

Yoane Wissa is DR Congo’s top projected goalscorer with a 0.42 probability – comfortably the highest individual figure in this match. He has been their focal point in attack and if the Leopards are going to find the net, he is the most likely source.

Eldor Shomurodov carries Uzbekistan’s hopes with a 0.28 projected goal probability. He is their talisman and the one player capable of changing the script. Abbosbek Fayzullaev is another to watch on the Uzbekistan side – he has committed at least one foul in every one of his last five appearances (averaging 1.6 per game), suggesting he will be heavily involved in the physical battle.

Aaron Tshibola has registered at least one shot in all five of his last outings for DR Congo, averaging 1.8 per game. He is getting into dangerous positions consistently and looks a solid bet to be involved in any attacking move.

Betting Angles

DR Congo are projected favourites (1.32 vs 0.96) and their form, while imperfect, is markedly better than Uzbekistan’s. DR Congo to win looks the standout angle here – they have more to play for in terms of realistic qualification hopes and the projections back them.

With a combined expected total of 2.28, under 2.5 goals is in play. Neither side has been free-scoring, and the desperation of the occasion could make this cagey and tight.

Zwayer’s 15.25 fouls per game average is high. Combine that with the stakes and you get a recipe for bookings. Over 2.5 cards is worth considering.

Statz Bet Builder

Four legs from the Statz Bet Builder, combining at 5.48 with bet365:

Two of those legs are at 100% across the last five and the other two are at 80%. At 5.48, the payout reflects the slight extra risk on the Kayembe and Mbuku legs, but the underlying data is still strong. A decent value play if you fancy all four to land.

The Verdict

DR Congo should have enough here. They are projected favourites, they have the better recent form, and Uzbekistan’s -7 goal difference tells you everything about how their tournament has gone. Back DR Congo to win as the main play, and the Statz bet builder at 5.48 adds a solid data-backed kicker to the evening.

All odds bet365 and subject to change.