Senegal vs Iraq Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026

26th June 2026

Senegal vs Iraq World Cup 2026 match preview

Two pointless sides, one last shot at survival

This is a must-win game for both Senegal and Iraq. Bottom two in their World Cup group, both sitting on zero points from two games, tonight’s 8pm BST kick-off is season over for the loser. Senegal’s goal difference of -3 is bad. Iraq’s -6 is worse. Desperation from both sides should make this an open, attacking contest.

Form and context

Senegal’s recent form is patchy – five wins, one draw, and four losses from their last 10. They have scored 15 and conceded 14 in that stretch, which is hardly the defensive solidity you want at a World Cup. But against Iraq, who have managed just nine goals in 10 games while leaking 13, Senegal are the clear favourites.

The head-to-head projections paint a one-sided picture. Statz Projections have this at Senegal 2.09 – 0.70 Iraq. That is a projected three-goal swing and suggests Senegal should dominate.

Anthony Taylor is the referee. He has been lenient in this tournament – averaging just 2.75 yellows and 22.50 fouls per game across four matches, with no reds shown. Do not expect a card-fest.

Key stats to know

Senegal’s attacking depth is their biggest advantage. Ismaila Sarr leads the projections with 0.60 goals per game, 2.42 shots and 0.82 on target. He is the most likely scorer on the pitch. Nicolas Jackson is not far behind at 0.49 projected goals, 2.54 shots and 1.08 on target per game – actually more clinical when he does shoot.

Sadio Mane remains a huge threat at 0.48 projected goals and 2.52 shots per game. That is three players all projected above 0.4 goals – Iraq will struggle to contain all of them.

Iraq’s attacking output is limited. Aymen Hussein leads their projections at just 0.30 goals per game. Amir Al-Ammari offers some defensive bite with 1.65 tackles and 1.33 fouls per game, but that alone will not be enough.

Players to watch

Iliman Ndiaye is the wildcard for Senegal. Projected for 0.33 goals and 1.57 shots per game, he has the ability to unlock tight defences with his dribbling. If Iraq sit deep, Ndiaye could be the one to crack them open.

For Iraq, Ibrahim Bayesh is worth watching from midfield. He has hit 1+ shots in four of his last five games (80% hit rate) and offers Iraq’s best route to goal from deeper positions.

Mohanad Ali is another Iraqi threat – averaging 1.6 shots across his last five, hitting 1+ in four of them. He has the pace to cause problems on the counter.

Betting angles

Senegal to win – The projections heavily favour Senegal (2.09 – 0.70). They have more individual quality across the pitch, and Iraq’s tournament has been poor. Senegal should get the job done.

Senegal over 1.5 goals – With a projected 2.09 goals, Senegal scoring twice or more feels like a strong probability. Three forwards all projected above 0.4 goals gives them multiple routes to the net.

Ismaila Sarr anytime goalscorer – Top-projected scorer at 0.60 per game with 2.42 shots. He is the focal point of this Senegal attack and should get chances against a leaky Iraq defence.

Statz Bet Builder – 4 legs @ 3.58 (Ladbrokes)

This Statz Bet Builder blends fouls, shots, and tackles for a solid slip at a decent price:

Combined odds: 3.58 on Ladbrokes. The Mendy fouls leg is the banker of the slip with a 100% hit rate. The three Iraq players all sit at 80% – you are getting solid consistency at a better price than the Norway-France builder.

Verdict

Senegal should win this. They have three genuine goal threats in Sarr, Jackson, and Mane, and the projections put them at more than two goals. Iraq have fought hard in this tournament but their attacking numbers are simply not good enough. Senegal to win and the 3.58 bet builder looks a strong play alongside it.

All odds are indicative and subject to change. Data sourced from statz.ai.