Curacao vs Côte d’Ivoire Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026

24th June 2026

Curacao take on Cote d’Ivoire in their final Group G fixture on Wednesday night (21:00 BST), and the stakes couldn’t be more different for these two. The Elephants sit second on 3 points and know a win almost certainly secures their place in the knockout rounds. Curacao, bottom of the group on 1 point with a -6 goal difference, are essentially playing for pride after being battered 7-1 by Germany in the opener.

But this is the World Cup, and Curacao didn’t come all this way to roll over. Let’s see what the numbers say.

Lineups and Player News

Lineups aren’t confirmed yet, so we’re working off projected squads. Curacao will lean on the Bacuna brothers – Juninho in midfield (1.79 projected fouls per game, this lad loves a scrap) and Leandro at the back, who chips in with 0.87 shots and 1.45 tackles per game. Tahith Chong offers creativity but his projection of 0.53 shots and 0.05 goals per game tells you he’s more about drawing fouls (1.99 per game) than finishing chances.

Cote d’Ivoire have serious firepower. Amad Diallo is the headline act – 2.93 projected shots, 0.47 goals, and 0.32 assists per game. He’s been electric. Behind him, Franck Kessie (0.37 goals per game), Elye Wahi (0.40), and Yan Diomande (0.39) give the Elephants options up front that Curacao simply can’t match. Ibrahim Sangare anchors the midfield with 2.90 projected tackles per game – an absolute destroyer.

Recent Form

Cote d’Ivoire have been excellent. Seven wins from their last ten (W7 D1 L2), including some seriously impressive scalps – they beat South Korea 4-0 away, France 2-1 away, and Scotland 1-0 at home. Their only losses came against Egypt in AFCON and Germany in the group stage (1-2). They’ve scored 19 and conceded 9 in that stretch. Quality side.

Curacao‘s form reads W3 D3 L4, but context matters. Their wins came against Jamaica, Bermuda (7-0), and Aruba – not exactly top-drawer opposition. When they’ve faced stronger sides, it’s been ugly. Losses to China (0-2), Australia (1-5), Scotland (1-4), and that 1-7 hammering from Germany. The 0-0 draw with Ecuador in their last match was arguably their best result in a while. They’ve scored 17 but conceded 19, and the quality of opponent matters.

Group G Standings

Cote d’Ivoire are second on 3 points (W1 L1) with a level goal difference. Curacao are last on 1 point with -6 goal difference. Even a win for Curacao likely wouldn’t be enough given that deficit. For the Elephants, three points here should be enough to go through.

Interesting Player Stats

Looking at the head-to-head stats, this is a fascinating mismatch. Cote d’Ivoire are projected for 17.89 total shots versus Curacao’s 7.28. That’s nearly 2.5x the volume. On target, it’s 6.29 to 2.65. The Elephants should dominate possession and territory.

Juninho Bacuna leads Curacao’s fouls committed with 15 in 10 games (1.50 per game) – he’s their engine and enforcer rolled into one. Shurandy Sambo is a monster defensively with 2.77 projected tackles per game but also 1.67 projected fouls. He’ll be busy.

For Cote d’Ivoire, Guela Doue stands out with 1.95 tackles and 1.79 fouls per game – a full-back who loves getting stuck in. Evann Guessand is projected for 2.47 shots and 0.40 goals per game with 1.71 fouls – a real handful for any defence. And Simon Adingra’s 0.37 assists per game projection is the highest in either squad.

Betting Angles

Projections

The projected scoreline is Curacao 0.58 – 2.28 Cote d’Ivoire. That’s a comfortable win for the Elephants, and honestly it feels about right. Curacao’s projected 0.58 goals tells you the models don’t expect them to trouble the scorers much. The corners projection (5.95 to 2.79) also shows where the pressure will come from.

Bet Builder Slip

The Statz Bet Builder has a 4-leg slip at 3.30 (bet365):

• Amad Diallo 1+ shots on target – 100% hit rate last 5 (values: 1, 2, 1, 2, 1). Avg 1.40 per game. Man United’s star man delivers consistently.
• Juninho Bacuna 1+ shots – 100% hit rate last 5 (values: 3, 1, 1, 2, 1). Avg 1.60 per game. He’ll have a pop whenever he can.
• Leandro Bacuna 1+ fouls – 100% hit rate last 5 (values: 2, 1, 2, 2, 1). Avg 1.60 per game. Combative defender who’ll be under pressure all game.
• Parfait Guiagon 1+ fouls – 100% hit rate last 5 (values: 1, 2, 1, 1, 1). Avg 1.20 per game. Gets stuck in. Simple as that.

Four legs, all at 100% hit rate over the last 5. At 3.30, this is a steady accumulator grounded in player tendencies. The fouls legs are particularly interesting given the referee.

Referee

Glenn Nyberg is the man in the middle, and he’s been busy this tournament – averaging 4.00 yellows, 0.25 reds, and 24.25 fouls across 4 games. That’s a lot of stoppages. With Juninho Bacuna (0.29 projected yellows per game) and Leandro Bacuna (0.33) both card-prone, plus Sangare’s physicality in midfield, expect bookings. The fouls count should be high here.

Summary and Suggestions

This should be Cote d’Ivoire’s game. The talent gap is significant – Diallo, Kessie, Wahi, Guessand versus a Curacao side that leaked 7 against Germany and has struggled against quality. The projected 2.28 goals for the Elephants feels realistic, maybe even conservative given Curacao’s defensive record against top sides.

The bet builder at 3.30 is the cleanest play. All four legs backed by 100% hit rates, and the mix of shots and fouls gives you multiple angles. In a game where Cote d’Ivoire should dominate possession and Curacao will be doing a lot of fouling, those markets look rock solid. Nyberg’s high foul average just adds another layer of confidence.