Paraguay vs Australia Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026
24th June 2026
Paraguay vs Australia – World Cup 2026 Preview
This one’s massive. Paraguay and Australia meet in what could well be a straight shootout for a knockout stage spot. Kick-off is 3am BST on Thursday 26th June – early hours viewing for UK punters, but with this much on the line, it’ll be worth the alarm clock.
Both sides sit on 3 points heading into the final group game. Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0 last time out after getting battered 1-4 by the USA in the opener. Australia, meanwhile, started brilliantly with a 2-0 win over Turkey before losing 0-2 to the States. Identical records, identical points – whoever wins here almost certainly goes through.
Lineups and Player News
No confirmed lineups yet, but we can make educated guesses from recent squads. Paraguay will likely lean on their combative midfield trio – Matias Galarza Fonda, Diego Gomez, and Andres Cubas are all physical, aggressive players who set the tempo. Up front, Julio Enciso is the main creative threat with Alex Arce and Antonio Sanabria competing for the striker role.
Australia have built around a young, energetic squad. Nestory Irankunda has been their most exciting attacking option, while Mohamed Toure leads the line. Connor Metcalfe and Jackson Irvine anchor the midfield, with Alessandro Circati providing solidity at the back.
Recent Form
Paraguay – WDLLWWLWLW (Last 10)
Paraguay’s form is the definition of inconsistent – five wins, one draw, four defeats in their last 10. They’ve beaten Greece 1-0, Mexico 2-1, and hammered Nicaragua 4-0 in a warm-up, but also lost to South Korea 0-2 and got turned over 1-4 by the USA. They’ve scored 14 and conceded 13 in that spell – far from watertight, but they know how to grind out results when it matters. That 1-0 over Turkey was classic Paraguay – ugly but effective.
Australia – WLLLWWLDWL (Last 10)
The Socceroos have had a mixed bag too – four wins, one draw, five losses. They struggled on the road with defeats to Venezuela (0-1), Colombia (0-3), and Mexico (0-1). But they’ve shown they can compete at this level – beating Cameroon 1-0, thrashing Curacao 5-1, and that impressive 2-0 win over Turkey in their World Cup opener. The 0-2 loss to the USA last time out was a reality check though. 11 scored and 11 conceded in 10 games – this is a side that keeps things tight but doesn’t blow anyone away offensively.
Key Player Stats
Paraguay’s Julio Enciso is the dangerman, projected at 0.24 goals per game with a team-high 2.32 shots per match and 0.80 shots on target. He also draws 2.11 fouls per game – he’s a nightmare to mark. Behind him, Diego Gomez is a tackling machine, projected at 2.63 tackles per game, while Andres Cubas leads the way with 3.29 projected tackles per match.
On the foul front, Paraguay are a notoriously physical side – Galarza Fonda and Cubas both recorded 10 fouls each in their last 10 games (1.00 per game). The team averages 13.56 fouls per game, well above Australia’s 11.82.
For Australia, Mohamed Toure leads the projected goalscoring charts at 0.21 per game with 1.51 shots per match. Nestory Irankunda is electric going forward – 1.45 shots and 2.13 fouls drawn per game – but he’s also the team’s biggest foul merchant with 16 fouls in 10 games (1.60 per game). Cammy Devlin contributes 2.17 tackles per game from midfield.
Betting Angles
Projections
The Statz projections slightly favour Paraguay at home – 1.04 projected goals vs Australia’s 0.83. Paraguay edge shots (10.79 vs 8.30) and shots on target (3.67 vs 3.00). This looks like a low-scoring affair on the numbers. Corners are close (4.13 vs 3.88), and both sides are projected for healthy foul counts – Paraguay 13.56 and Australia 11.82.
Bet Builder
The Statz Bet Builder has pulled a 4-leg slip at 2.94 on bet365:
- Jackson Irvine 1+ fouls – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 1, 1, 2, 1, 1), averaging 1.2 per game. Reliable as they come.
- Gabriel Avalos 1+ fouls – 100% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 3, 3, 2, 2, 1), averaging 2.2 per game. This man fouls constantly – he’s projected at 69.9% to land.
- Ajdin Hrustic 1+ shots – 80% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 1, 2, 1, 0, 1), averaging 1.0 per game.
- Connor Metcalfe 1+ shots – 80% hit rate in his last 5 (values: 1, 1, 0, 1, 2), averaging 1.0 per game. Projected at 66.7%.
Two 100% hit rate legs and two at 80% – solid consistency across the board. The fouls legs in particular look very strong given both players’ profiles. Avalos averaging 2.2 fouls per game in his last 5 gives huge margin.
Referee
Clement Turpin is in the middle – the experienced French official has averaged 3.50 yellows, 0.50 reds, and 22.00 fouls across 4 games this tournament. That reds average is notable – he’s not afraid to reach for his pocket. With two physical, foul-heavy teams going at it in a must-win game, expect a busy night for Turpin.
Summary and Suggestions
This screams tight, scrappy, foul-heavy contest. Both teams need the result, both teams like to compete physically, and the projections suggest a low-scoring game. Paraguay have the slight edge on home soil with better attacking projections, but there’s very little between these two on paper.
The bet builder at 2.94 is the play here. Two foul legs with 100% hit rates in a game that’s set up to be combative, plus two shot legs with strong recent form. In a game where the outright result is hard to call, player stat markets are your friend.
If you fancy a winner, Paraguay’s home advantage and marginally better attacking numbers give them a narrow edge, but don’t be surprised if this one ends 1-0 or 1-1. Neither side can afford to be cavalier.
Full stats and head-to-head data available on the match page. Build your own picks on the Bet Builder and explore more World Cup analysis on Statz.