Colombia vs DR Congo: World Cup Group K Preview, Predictions & Bet Builder
23rd June 2026
Colombia started their World Cup campaign with a statement and they’ll fancy putting Group K to bed when they face DR Congo in Tuesday’s early kick-off (3:00am BST). The Statz projections have Colombia winning this 1.55 to 0.68, and honestly, that might be generous to DR Congo.
Colombia top the group on 3 points with a +2 goal difference after a comfortable Matchday 1 win. DR Congo managed a draw in their opener and sit second on a single point. Respectable, sure, but they’ve got to find goals from somewhere if they want to stay in this thing – and everything in the data says Colombia are going to make that very difficult.
Form Check
Colombia’s recent form is scary. WWDWWLLWWW across the last 10 – seven wins, one draw, just two defeats. They’ve hammered in 25 goals while conceding only 11. That’s a side firing at both ends and comfortable controlling games when they need to.
DR Congo’s run of LWDWLWWDLD is far patchier. Four wins and three draws sounds workable, but 10 goals in 10 games is the red flag. A goal a game against Colombia’s back line? Good luck with that.
Statz Projections
Here’s how the Statz model sees this one shaking out:
| Stat | Colombia | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|
| Projected Goals | 1.55 | 0.68 |
| Match Fouls (ref avg) | 23.25 per game | |
| Match Yellows (ref avg) | 2.75 per game | |
Referee Maurizio Mariani takes charge and he’s been fairly measured in this tournament – 23.25 fouls and 2.75 yellows per game across 4 matches. That said, Colombia like a tackle and DR Congo aren’t shy about getting stuck in either. The full projected breakdown for shots, SOT and corners is on the H2H page.
Key Players
Colombia: Luis Suarez tops the projected scorer chart at 0.43 goals per game and remains the focal point of everything Los Cafeteros do going forward. In midfield, Richard Rios is box-to-box dynamite – 1.33 shots, 0.50 SOT, 1.82 fouls and 1.69 tackles per game. He’s everywhere. Daniel Munoz continues to be a threat from right-back with 0.71 shots and a team-high 2.24 tackles per game, while Kevin Castano chips in with 1.91 tackles in the middle. Even Davinson Sanchez gets forward with 0.76 shots alongside his 1.67 tackles from centre-back.
DR Congo: Yoane Wissa carries the attacking burden but his projected 0.21 goals per game tells you the scale of what he’s up against. He does manage 1.32 shots and 0.41 SOT per game, which isn’t nothing. Cedric Bakambu brings energy and aggression – 1.38 shots and a whopping 1.98 fouls per game – and he’s their top fouler at 1.60 per game over the last 10. Theo Bongonda offers a bit of both ways with 1.24 shots and 1.62 tackles. Samuel Moutoussamy anchors things with 2.38 tackles per game, while Aaron Wan-Bissaka adds 1.58 tackles from the back.
Bet Builder
The Statz Bet Builder has flagged a four-leg combo at 2.42 on bet365:
- Jaminton Campaz – included in the build
- Brian Cipenga – 1+ shots
- Gustavo Puerta – 1+ fouls (13 fouls in 10 games, 1.30 per game – this one practically picks itself)
- Cucho Hernandez – 1+ SOT
Puerta’s fouls line is the standout leg here. Thirteen fouls in his last 10 outings means this hits more often than not. Bakambu on the other side averages 1.60 fouls per game if you fancy building your own. Head to the Bet Builder for the full breakdown.
The Angle
Colombia should win this comfortably. The quality gap is clear from every angle – goalscoring, creativity, defensive steel. DR Congo averaging a goal a game across their last 10 is nowhere near enough to trouble a side that’s won 7 of 10 and conceded just 11. The projected 1.55-0.68 feels right – Colombia to win is the straightforward play, and if you fancy adding some spice, the discipline markets should deliver with both sides happy to get physical. Don’t sleep on it – even if the kick-off time is trying its best to make you.
All projections and stats via statz.ai. Odds are indicative and subject to change.