Argentina vs Egypt Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026
5th July 2026
Argentina have been unstoppable at this World Cup, and they carry a perfect record into Tuesday’s Round of 32 meeting with Egypt at 17:00 BST. Lionel Messi has been in fine form throughout the group stage, and Statz head-to-head data paints a picture of a heavy mismatch on paper – though Mohamed Salah means Egypt are never without a threat.
Predicted Lineups and Player News
Argentina (predicted): Emiliano Martinez; Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico; Rodrigo De Paul, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister; Thiago Almada, Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez
Egypt (predicted): Oufa Shobeir; Ramy Rabia, Yasser Ibrahim, Hossam Abdelmaguid, Mohamed Hany; Hamdy Fathy, Marwan Ateya, Emam Ashour; Omar Marmoush, Mostafa Mohamed, Mohamed Salah
These lineups are predicted, not confirmed. Check back closer to kick-off for official team news.
Recent Team Form
Argentina have won all 10 of their last 10 matches, scoring 31 goals and conceding just 4. At this World Cup they topped their group with a maximum 9 points – three wins from three with a goal difference of +7. This is a side firing on all cylinders.
Egypt have been far more mixed in recent form – W3 D5 L2 from their last 10 – though they finished second in their group with 5 points (W1 D2 L0) and a +2 goal difference. That record of 12 goals scored and 7 conceded in 10 shows they can find the net, but consistency has been a problem.
Key Player Stats and Statz Projections
The headline story is Messi. Statz projects him at 0.76 goals and 2.05 shots on target for this fixture – comfortably the highest output of any player in the game. Lautaro Martinez (0.52 goals projected) and Julian Alvarez (0.37) add serious backup up front, making Argentina’s attacking projection of 1.81 goals one of the strongest at this tournament.
For Egypt, everything runs through Mohamed Salah. His goal projection of 0.18 reflects the team-wide gap, but his shot output tells a better story – 100% hit rate on 1+ shots across his last 5 games, averaging 2.0 shots per game. Omar Marmoush averages 1.20 fouls per game, which could be relevant for free-kick positions in dangerous areas.
Statz’s World Cup competition page and the full Argentina vs Egypt H2H have more underlying numbers if you want to dig deeper.
Betting Angles
There are no bookmaker odds available for World Cup fixtures on Statz, so these angles are based on hit rates and projected numbers only.
- Mohamed Salah – 1+ Shots: 100% hit rate across his last 5 games, averaging 2.0 shots per game. Egypt’s only reliable route to goal runs through him, so expect him to be active regardless of the scoreline.
- Lautaro Martinez – 1+ Fouls Committed: 100% hit rate across last 5 games, averaging 1.6 fouls. He works hard off the ball and consistently picks up fouls in pressing situations.
- Messi – Shots on Target: Projected at 2.05 SOT for this game. If you can find a shots or SOT market, the projection is strongly in his favour.
- Ibrahim Adel – 1+ Shots: 100% hit rate (5 games), average 2.4 shots. Note – not in the predicted XI for Egypt, so this leg only applies if he starts or comes on as a substitute.
- Exequiel Palacios – 1+ Fouls: 100% hit rate (5 games). Note – not in the predicted XI for Argentina, so this is one to watch only if he features.
For a broader look at player data, the World Cup projections tool on Statz is worth a browse before you build anything.
Summary
Argentina are the clear favourites on form and data, with a projected 1.81-0.57 scoreline reflecting the gap between the sides. Messi’s numbers are exceptional, and Egypt will need Salah at his very best to cause any disruption. Salah’s shot consistency is the most reliable individual angle for the underdogs, while Argentina’s forward line offers multiple avenues for those playing the projections.
Check the full Argentina vs Egypt H2H on Statz for the complete data picture before kick-off.