Germany vs Paraguay Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026
28th June 2026
Germany against Paraguay in the World Cup Round of 32. The hosts with nine wins from their last ten against a side that squeezed through the group stage on four points. This should be a mismatch on paper – but knockout football doesn’t always care about what the data says. Kick-off is 9:30pm BST on Sunday.
Match Context
Germany topped Group F with six points (W2 D0 L1, GD +6) and their recent form is borderline ridiculous – nine wins from ten, 31 goals scored, nine conceded. That sole defeat came against the USA in the group stage opener, a 4-1 humbling they’ve since put firmly behind them with a clinical 1-0 win over Turkey and a dominant display against Nicaragua in the warm-ups. This is a side hitting their stride at exactly the right time.
Paraguay finished third in their group on four points (W1 D1 L1, GD -2). Their last ten reads W4 D2 L4 – 13 scored, 13 conceded. A mixed bag at best. They ground out a win over Turkey, drew with Australia, and lost 4-1 to the USA. Not exactly a team striking fear into anyone, but they’ve shown they can be compact and awkward to break down when they dig in.
Key Stats
The Statz projections tell you everything about the gulf in quality here. Germany are projected for 1.90 goals versus Paraguay’s 0.75. Shot volume: Germany 17.59 to Paraguay’s 8.60, with 6.47 shots on target to 3.22. That’s more than double the output across every attacking metric.
Corners follow the same pattern – Germany 5.70 to Paraguay’s 3.42. But the foul count flips it. Paraguay are projected for 13.20 fouls and 2.06 yellows compared to Germany’s 11.71 fouls and 1.54 yellows. Paraguay will be doing a lot of chasing and a lot of fouling to slow Germany’s attacking transitions. No referee has been assigned yet, but whoever gets the whistle will have a busy night with the cards.
Players to Watch
Deniz Undav leads Germany’s projected goal output at 0.46 from 2.98 shots and 1.25 SOT per game. He’s been the sharp edge of this German attack and looks hungry for more in the knockout rounds.
Kai Havertz projects for 0.44 goals from 2.43 shots and 1.11 SOT – the Arsenal forward has been Germany’s most reliable presence in the box throughout this tournament. Florian Wirtz (0.33 goals, 2.33 shots, 0.85 SOT) and Jamal Musiala (0.29 goals, 2.57 shots, 0.84 SOT) provide the creative firepower behind them. Musiala draws fouls at a ridiculous 2.55 per game – defenders simply cannot live with him.
For Paraguay, Julio Enciso is the most exciting talent in the squad – projecting 0.17 goals from 1.93 shots and 0.75 SOT. The Brighton youngster draws fouls at 2.16 per game and can produce moments of magic on his day. Alex Arce (0.17 goals, 1.49 shots) and Miguel Almiron (0.13 goals, 1.05 shots) offer different threats, but Paraguay’s attacking output looks modest against this German defence.
Betting Angles
Germany to Win: Projected 1.90 to 0.75 is a significant edge. Nine wins from ten in recent form. Group winners versus third-place qualifiers. Everything points to Germany advancing comfortably.
Over 2.5 Cards: Paraguay project 2.06 yellows alone, and with Germany’s attackers drawing fouls at high rates – Musiala at 2.55 fouls drawn per game, Havertz at 0.97, Wirtz at 0.82 – the card count should tick up quickly. Paraguay will need to foul to slow Germany’s transitions.
Germany Over 5.5 Shots on Target: Germany project 6.47 SOT. With Undav, Havertz, Wirtz, and Musiala all firing, they should pepper Paraguay’s goal throughout.
Bet Builder – 4 Legs @ 2.97 (bet365)
Built using the Statz Bet Builder:
Leg 1: Kai Havertz 1+ Shots on Target (4/11 – bet365)
100% hit rate in his last five matches, averaging 1.2 SOT per game. Havertz projects for 1.11 SOT in this fixture and has been the focal point of Germany’s attack. Getting one on frame is bread and butter for him.
Leg 2: Pascal Gross 1+ Shots (2/5 – bet365)
100% hit rate over his last five, averaging 1.4 shots per game. Gross projects for 1.00 shots and has been contributing going forward from midfield all tournament. He finds space to get his attempts away consistently.
Leg 3: Gabriel Avalos 1+ Shots (1/5 – bet365)
100% hit rate in his last five, averaging 2.0 shots per game. Avalos projects for 0.99 shots and should be involved as a focal point of Paraguay’s attack. Even when Paraguay are on the back foot, he’ll look to get his shots away.
Leg 4: Leroy Sane 1+ Tackles (1.30 – bet365)
100% hit rate over his last five, averaging 1.6 tackles per game. Sane projects for 0.94 tackles and has been putting in proper two-way shifts on the wing. With Paraguay needing to push forward at times, he’ll have chances to win it back.
Combined odds: 2.97 (39/20) on bet365.
The Verdict
This has Germany win written all over it. A projected scoreline of 1.90 to 0.75, dominant shot volume, and a form record that speaks for itself. Paraguay will make it physical and cards should flow, but they don’t have the quality to stay with Germany for 90 minutes.
Back Germany and the bet builder at 2.97 for a solid knockout-stage play. Full head-to-head breakdown here for the deeper dive into this World Cup Round of 32 clash.