Real Madrid vs Alaves Predictions, Betting Tips and Bet Builder – La Liga 2026
21st April 2026
Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves kicks off at 8:30pm BST tonight in La Liga – and the numbers don’t lie. Statz projects Kylian Mbappe at 1.17 goals, 5.0 shots and 2.32 shots on target. Against a side sitting 17th and fighting to stay in the division, Madrid at home looks like a mismatch on paper.
Alaves have 33 points from their campaign – deep in the relegation zone with games running out. Real Madrid, second with 70 points, are in a different universe.
Lineups and Player News
These lineups are unconfirmed – check closer to kick-off for updates.
Real Madrid (predicted): Lunin; Alexander-Arnold, Militao, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Guler; Mbappe, Vinicius Jr
Alaves (predicted): Sivera; Enriquez, Angel Perez, Parada, Tenaglia, Jonny Otto; Guridi, Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibanez; Toni Martinez, Diabate
If that Madrid front line starts, you’ve got Mbappe, Vinicius Jr and Bellingham all in double-digit goal projections for the season. Alaves are fielding a side that projects 0.78 goals on a good day.
Recent Form
Real Madrid have won six of their last ten, drawn one and lost three – scoring 20 and conceding 12. They’re in reasonable nick domestically and will be full value as heavy favourites here.
Alaves have managed just two wins in ten, with five draws and three defeats. They’ve scored 17 and let in 20. Not a side in form, not a side in confidence. Survival mode is the only agenda tonight.
Key Player Stats and Projections
The Statz projections tell the full story. Madrid project 2.57 goals, 18.4 shots and 6.56 shots on target tonight. Alaves project 0.78 goals off just 7.6 shots and 2.58 on target.
Mbappe leads the line with 1.17 projected goals – that’s a significant xG output from one player alone. Vinicius Jr chips in at 0.61 projected goals, and Jude Bellingham from midfield adds another 0.37. Madrid’s front three can all hurt you.
On the other side, Toni Martinez is Alaves’s main threat. He projects 3.6 shots per game – high volume for a side expected to chase the game. He’ll likely be busy, even if the goals don’t come.
Betting Angles
The referee here is Juan Martinez Munuera – and that’s a name worth noting. Across 14 games this season, he’s averaging 4.71 yellows per game and 28.21 fouls. High card count, high foul count.
Now pair that with Alaves projecting 11.2 fouls per game tonight. That’s a lot of niggly challenges from a side under the cosh. With this referee in the middle, bookings look very much on the menu.
Madrid project 1.69 yellows on their own side – combined you’re looking at a game that could rack up 3+ cards without much difficulty. Cards markets and both teams’ foul counts are worth factoring into any bet builder.
On the match itself, Madrid project more than three times Alaves’s goal output. Asian handicap or a -1 on Madrid is a sensible angle if you want something with more value than a simple 1X2.
Bet Builder – 4 Legs @ 5.35 (Ladbrokes)
All four legs backed by Statz data and 80% hit rates across the last five games.
1. Federico Valverde 1+ shots on target – 1.85 (Ladbrokes)
Hitting 80% of the time over his last five, averaging 1.0 SOT per game. Valverde drives forward from midfield regularly and with Madrid expected to dominate possession, he’ll get his chances to test the keeper.
2. Angel Perez 1+ shots – 1.53 (Ladbrokes)
The Alaves defender averages 0.8 shots per game and has hit this in 80% of his last five appearances. Worth including as a low-odds, high-probability leg to anchor the builder.
3. Toni Martinez 2+ shots – 1.40 (Ladbrokes)
As flagged above, Martinez projects 3.6 shots per game. He’s hitting 2+ in 80% of his last five outings. Alaves will need someone to make things happen going forward – Martinez is that man.
4. Fran Garcia 2+ tackles – 2/5 (Bet365)
An 80% hit rate over the last five games, averaging 1.8 tackles. With Alaves likely to push forward at times, Garcia will be active defensively down his flank.
Combined price: 5.35 on Ladbrokes. Four legs, all hitting at 80% in recent games, grounded in Statz projections.
Summary
Madrid are heavy favourites and the data backs that up comprehensively. Mbappe alone projects over a goal. The referee profile and Alaves’s foul count make cards a live angle. The bet builder at 5.35 is built on four legs with consistent recent hit rates – that’s the play tonight.
Check the full H2H breakdown on Statz for live lineup updates and projections before kick-off.