Ipswich vs QPR Preview – Championship Predictions and Bet Builder Tips
1st May 2026
Ipswich are still in the hunt. Second place, 81 points, and every game between now and the end of the season matters. QPR roll into Portman Road on Saturday morning as a side with nothing to play for and five losses in their last ten – not exactly the visiting side you want when you need a result, but comfortable opponents have a habit of producing comfortable afternoons in the Championship. Ipswich are 63.2% favourites here according to the Statz model and the home faithful will expect three points.
Check the Ipswich vs QPR H2H and match preview on Statz for the full data breakdown.
Lineups and Player News
Ipswich have the firepower to hurt any Championship side at this level. Jaden Philogene leads the line in terms of raw output – 1.32 shots on target per game with a 0.48 goals projection for this fixture. George Hirst is not far behind at 1.04 SOT and 0.40 goals projected, while Jack Clarke chips in with 0.79 SOT and a 0.45 goal projection. Ipswich are built to create and the numbers back that up.
QPR have struggled for consistency recently – W3 D2 L5 in their last ten tells the story of a side just seeing out the season. No standout attacking threats here and the model projects just 0.96 goals for the visitors.
Recent Form
Ipswich: DWDWWLDWDD – W4 D5 L1 in the last ten. They are grinding out results more than blowing teams away but the points are coming in. Just one loss in ten is a solid platform for a promotion push.
QPR: LLWWWDDLLL – that mini-run of three wins looks a distant memory now. Five defeats in ten and no real momentum heading into this. They are a mid-table Championship side coasting to the line and the model knows it – 15.5% chance of a win on the road here.
Statz Projections
The numbers are pretty one-sided. Ipswich project 2.17 goals, 5.84 shots on target, 6.43 corners and 1.60 yellow cards. QPR come in at 0.96 goals, 3.00 SOT, 3.93 corners – but they do project 12.48 fouls and 2.17 yellow cards per game. That foul count is worth noting for the card and foul markets.
Over 2.5 goals sits at 60.7% and BTTS at 54.9%. The model backs Ipswich heavily but does leave the door open for QPR to nick one – which is enough to keep BTTS interesting.
Referee Gavin Ward averages 3.23 yellow cards and 20.23 fouls per game. QPR’s high projected foul count (12.48) combined with Ward’s whistle-happy reputation makes the foul and card markets very worth exploring.
Betting Angles
- Ipswich win – 63.2%: The model has Ipswich as strong favourites at home. 2nd place hosts 14th – this is a game Ipswich should be winning.
- Over 2.5 goals – 60.7%: Ipswich project 2.17 goals alone. QPR will get chances on the counter even if they are not the most threatening side in this division.
- QPR Over 10.5 fouls: QPR project 12.48 fouls per game. Under a referee who averages 20+ fouls per game, that market looks tasty.
- Jaden Philogene shot on target: 1.32 SOT per game average and 0.48 goals projected. One of the most dangerous players in the Championship and the model loves him here.
Bet Builder
Four legs from the Statz SGP data, all on bet365:
- Jack Taylor Fouls 1+ – 1.40: 100% hit rate, 5 from 5. Consistent foul-getter in midfield.
- Cedric Kipre Fouls 1+ – 1.50: 100% hit rate, 5 from 5. Defender who commits regularly.
- Ziyad Larkeche Shots 1+ – 1.83: 80% hit rate, 4 from 5. Getting involved in games and testing keepers.
- Kieran Morgan Shots 1+ – 1.62: 80% hit rate, 4 from 5. Active presence and finding space to shoot.
Combined at around 6.89 on bet365.
Summary
Ipswich at home to a QPR side with nothing to play for. The model has it at 63.2% for a home win and the projections back up why – 2.17 goals and nearly 6 shots on target for the hosts. The fouls market for QPR (12.48 projected) under Gavin Ward is the standout angle outside the main result. Ipswich to win and over 2.5 goals is the sensible play.