Derby vs Oxford Utd Predictions and Betting Tips – Saturday 18 April 2025

17th April 2026

Derby County host Oxford United in the Championship on Saturday lunchtime – and on paper, this looks like a home win waiting to happen. Derby have been solid at Pride Park, Oxford have drawn three of their last five and have struggled to score. The Statz model heavily favours the hosts here.

Full head-to-head data: Derby vs Oxford Utd on Statz

Lineups and Player News

Lineups for this one haven’t been confirmed yet, so we’ll update when they drop. Keep an eye on the Statz H2H page for team news as it comes in.

Team profiles: Derby County on Statz | Oxford United on Statz

Recent Form

Derby’s last five reads W W L W L – three wins from five with both losses sandwiched around positive results. They know how to win at this level and at home they’ve been particularly dangerous.

Oxford have done the opposite – D L D D W in their last five. Just the one win, and three draws. They’re not losing heavily but they’re not winning either. That kind of form tends to get found out against a team like Derby who are pushing upwards.

The Statz model is very clear here. Derby are projected at 1.58 goals to Oxford’s 0.92. The shot projection is even more stark – Derby at 13.90, Oxford at just 8.67. That’s a big gap. Check out the Championship stats on Statz for more context.

Player Stats to Know

The Statz Bet Builder has flagged some interesting angles for this Championship clash:

Myles Peart-Harris – 1+ Shots (1.25): Five from five, with a form line of 1, 1, 1, 1, 2. An absolute banker leg at 1.25. Never missed in the last five and he’s consistently getting at least one shot in.

Cameron Brannagan – 2+ Shots (1.50): Four from five, form: 3, 1, 2, 3, 2. The Oxford midfielder gets forward and fires, hitting two or more shots in four of his last five games. Good value at 1.50.

Will Vaulks – 1+ Yellow Cards (4.33): Hit in four of the last five – 1, 1, 0, 1, 1. Vaulks has one of those playing styles that tends to annoy referees. Samuel Allison is the man in the middle today, averaging 3.13 yellows per game. The price at 4.33 is exceptional for a leg hitting 80% of the time.

Ben Brereton Diaz – 1+ Shots on Target (1.73): Three from five, form: 1, 2, 0, 0, 1. Two blanks in there keep the hit rate at 60%, but when he’s on it he’s on it. Worth considering given the price.

All Championship projections at Statz Championship player projections.

Betting Angles

The combined price on this four-leg builder is 14.03 – and that’s entirely driven by the Vaulks card leg at 4.33. If you believe in Vaulks picking up a yellow under a referee who averages 3+ cards a game, then this is a seriously attractive price.

Samuel Allison’s foul count is high at 23.13 per game. More fouls means more card opportunities, and in a Championship game between two sides fighting for position, the physical side tends to come out.

Derby win is also worth noting on its own merits. The shot gap (13.90 vs 8.67) is one of the bigger differentials you’ll see this weekend. Derby should create plenty and Oxford’s form doesn’t suggest they can match it.

Summary

Derby are the clear pick to win this one based on projections and form. The shot advantage is significant and Oxford haven’t been winning games. The Vaulks yellow card at 4.33 with an 80% hit rate is the headline leg – it’s why the builder hits 14.03 and that makes this one of the more exciting builders of the weekend.

Pick: Derby to win + 4-leg bet builder at 14.03
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