Aston Villa vs Liverpool Predictions – 15 May 2026

11th May 2026

Both teams. Same points. Same position in the race for Europe. Aston Villa vs Liverpool on Friday night is everything you want from a final-day-ish fixture – nothing separates these two in the table and the data confirms it’s a genuine 50/50. Strap in.

Form and Context

Aston Villa and Liverpool are both on 59 points. Both eyeing European qualification. Both needing points from this game. European football is on the line.

Villa’s last 10: two wins, three draws, five defeats. 13 goals scored, 19 conceded. That’s a side that’s been struggling for consistency – form reading D L L L W D W L L D tells you there’s no momentum. They need this badly.

Liverpool’s last 10 is better: five wins, two draws, three defeats. 19 goals scored, 13 conceded. Recent five: W W L D L – slightly patchy but with more firepower. They arrive as marginal model favourites despite being away from home.

Lineups aren’t confirmed on Statz yet – check the H2H page for team news before kickoff.

Statz Projections

Villa project 1.50 goals, 12.55 shots, 4.38 shots on target and 4.03 corners. Liverpool project 1.53 goals, 12.22 shots, 3.98 shots on target and 4.23 corners.

Truly even. The goal projections are within 0.03 of each other. Markets reflect that: Villa 35.86% / Draw 26.39% / Liverpool 37.75%. BTTS at 60.83%, Over 2.5 at 58.3%.

For Liverpool’s projected scoring output, see the full Premier League projections on Statz – Liverpool project 1.53 goals in this game. On Villa’s side, Ollie Watkins is the main attacking threat at 0.45 projected goals – more on his profile at statz.ai/team/aston-villa.

Referee and Fouls

Fouls leaders over the last 10: Ollie Watkins leads Villa’s foul count with 13 at 1.30 per game – he’s physical and busy in the press. Liverpool’s top fouler is Alexis Mac Allister at 17 fouls and 1.70 per game – an unusually high rate for a central midfielder, worth noting for yellow card markets.

Liverpool project 10.71 fouls vs Villa’s 7.54 – Liverpool’s projection is notably higher, which fits Mac Allister’s tendency to get stuck in.

Bet Builder – 3.29 @ Statz Recommendation

Statz is showing a two-leg combination for this one – shorter than usual but both legs are solid:

Combined at 3.29. It’s a two-legger rather than the usual four, but these are the legs Statz recommends for this fixture – both are high-probability hits based on the data. For more combinations, use the Statz Bet Builder Tool.

The Angle

BTTS at 60.83% is the cleanest market in a game where both sides project almost identically on goals. Over 2.5 at 58.3% also has merit – both sides need to win, which means neither can park the bus. Attacking intent from both should produce goals.

Liverpool’s marginal 37.75% win probability vs Villa’s 35.86% barely registers. The Salah factor is the one variable that could tilt things – in a must-win atmosphere, he tends to show up. Mac Allister’s foul rate is also worth noting if you’re building a yellow card leg for this game.

Both teams need this result. That’s usually a recipe for a proper game. European places, equal points, Friday night. Don’t miss it.

All projections and stats via Statz. Full fixture data at statz.ai/h2h/villa-vs-liverpool/19427227.