Spurs vs Leeds Predictions and Betting Tips – 12 May 2026

11th May 2026

Two teams who’ve had wildly different seasons arriving at the same destination – nowhere near the top, nowhere near the bottom, with nothing much left to play for except pride and the faint possibility of pulling a few extra quid out of their end-of-season positions. Spurs have gone L L D W W and Leeds D W W D W. Both decent runs. Neither convincing enough to pretend this matters hugely.

The H2H page has this as about as close to a coin flip as a Premier League fixture gets. Statz projects 1.46 goals for Spurs and 1.48 for Leeds. You won’t find many tighter 90-minute scorelines than that.

Lineups

Spurs line up in a 4-2-3-1: Kinsky; Porro, Danso, van de Ven, Udogie; Palhinha, Bentancur; Kolo Muani, Gallagher, Tel; Richarlison.

Leeds set up 3-4-2-1: Darlow; Struijk, Bijol, Rodon; Justin, Tanaka, Ampadu, Bogle; Aaronson, Stach; Calvert-Lewin.

Statz Projections

The team projections are almost identical across the board. Spurs edge shots 12.23 to 11.30 and corners 5.06 to 3.71, while Leeds lead on tackles 17.90 to 14.91 – the 3-4-2-1 structure explains that. Fouls: 11.07 (Spurs) and 9.08 (Leeds). Yellow cards: 1.64 and 1.43.

Referee Jarred Gillett averages 20.1 fouls per game and 3.52 yellows. That foul rate is high enough to give the card and fouls markets some interest, though neither side projects as particularly dirty here.

Betting Angles

The goals projections screaming “draw” (1.46 vs 1.48) is one of those times where the data is telling you something. Both teams have genuine attacking threats but neither have been clean sheets this side of February. BTTS has landed in Leeds’ last four, Spurs’ last three. Worth a look at BTTS on the bet builder tool.

Bet Builder – 7.21/1

Four legs, all sourced from the Statz bet builder:

Pedro Porro 1+ Shots – 1.30
8th among PL defenders for total shots this season (28 in 31 appearances). Has hit 1+ shots in every one of his last 5 qualifying games – form reads 1, 2, 2, 3, 2. 100% hit rate. The anchor leg.

Rodrigo Bentancur 2+ Tackles – 1.57
46 tackles in 23 appearances this season (38th among PL midfielders). Last 5: 2, 3, 4, 5, 3. Hit 2+ in all five. Leeds’ 3-4-2-1 with two CMs will keep him occupied. 100% hit rate.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin 1+ SOT – 1.57
7th among PL attackers for SOT this season (31 in 32 apps). Last 5: 1, 1, 0, 2, 2 – 80% hit rate. Consistent volume marker all campaign.

Anton Stach 1+ SOT – 2.25
16th among PL midfielders for SOT (14 in 27 apps). Last 5: 1, 1, 1, 0, 1 – 80% hit rate. The 2.25 price is the value in this leg given his consistent involvement.

Combined: 7.21/1 @ bet365 – Add to Bet Builder

The Angle

Both teams project almost identically – this is a match where the process bets do more heavy lifting than picking a winner. The bet builder is the main play. If you want a result bet, the draw at around 3.20 isn’t bad given how level the model reads this one.

See full projections and stats at statz.ai/h2h/spurs-vs-leeds/19427224