Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest Predictions, Betting Tips and Bet Builder – Premier League

24th April 2026

Two sides that really need a result, neither sure they deserve one. Friday night Premier League – does not get much more tense than this.

Match Context

Sunderland sit 11th in the table on 46 points (W12 D10 L11, GD -4) – safely mid-table but with nothing left to play for beyond pride and momentum. Nottingham Forest are in a very different position, 16th on just 36 points (W9 D9 L15, GD -9), still close enough to the danger zone to be looking over their shoulders.

Form tells an interesting story. Sunderland have gone WLLLDWLWWL in their last ten – that is W4 D1 L5, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Patchy, but those four wins suggest there is something there. Forest have managed just W2 D5 L3 in their last ten (DLDLLDDWDW), shipping 11 and scoring 13. Two draws and a win from the last three is the kind of run that keeps a side out of trouble, but it is not convincing.

Markets are reflecting exactly how even this looks. Sunderland are 34.45% implied probability to win, Forest 34.31%, with the draw at 31.24%. Genuinely a coin flip. Full match data and head-to-head stats here.

Lineups and Player News

Both sides have 11 players predicted in tonight’s lineups per Statz data. Key names to watch: Brian Brobbey leads the Sunderland attack and is the club’s top foul-winner over the last ten games with 14 fouls committed (1.40 per game). For Forest, Ibrahim Sangaré tops the foul charts for the visitors with 22 in the last ten (2.20 per game) – that midfield battle is going to be physical.

Granit Xhaka is named in Sunderland’s predicted lineup, and his presence in midfield gives them a real platform. Morgan Gibbs-White leads Forest’s attacking threat and is the one to watch going forward.

Key Stats and Projections

Statz projections have this as almost perfectly even on goals: Sunderland 1.15 expected, Forest 1.14. Brobbey is Sunderland’s top projected goalscorer at 0.27, while Gibbs-White edges it for Forest at 0.33. Both teams scoring is around 55% probability per the markets – the data backs that up.

Referee Darren England takes charge tonight. He averages 4.35 yellows and 21.90 fouls per game across 20 appearances this season – a decent card rate, and with Sangaré already fouling at 2.20 per game, there could be some bookings to consider.

Betting Angles

Both Teams to Score (~55% implied probability)
Projected scorelines of 1.15-1.14 almost demand BTTS consideration. Both sides are leaky enough defensively – Sunderland conceded 14 in their last ten, Forest 11 – and both have enough to find the net. The data supports a goal at each end.

Over 2.5 Goals (~48% implied)
More marginal than BTTS but worth noting as a secondary angle. With Darren England averaging 21.90 fouls per game and a combined 2.29 projected goals, the game could open up. A lean rather than a conviction play, but the conditions are there.

Morgan Gibbs-White to have 1+ shots on target (1.73 bet365)
Gibbs-White is Forest’s top projected goalscorer tonight at 0.33. He has registered a shot on target in four of his last five games – 80% hit rate, averaging 1.2 SOT per game. Good value for a creative midfielder with license to attack.

Bet Builder – 6.21 on bet365

Four legs, all returning an 80% hit rate over the last five games. Build it yourself using the Statz bet builder tool.

Combined: 6.21 on bet365

Add all four legs to your bet365 betslip here

Summary

Sunderland vs Forest is a Friday night fixture between two sides with very different motivations but similar expected outputs on the data. The projections point to a tight, fairly even game where both teams find the net. Forest need the points more, but Sunderland at home with Brobbey leading the line and Xhaka pulling strings in midfield are no pushover.

The bet builder at 6.21 is the standout angle – four legs all backed by consistent recent form at 80% hit rates each. That is the play tonight.