Cremonese vs Como Prediction: Serie A Match Preview and Betting Tips

22nd May 2026

Como have been one of the stories of Italian football this season, and Statz data suggests they are not done yet – even on the road against a Cremonese side fighting for their top-flight lives.

The Situation

Cremonese are in deep trouble. 18th in Serie A on just 34 points – W8 D10 L19, goal difference of -22. Their last 10 games read W3 D1 L6 with 10 scored and 15 conceded. They need points desperately but have been inconsistent all season, winning two of their last three but only after four consecutive defeats.

Como sit 5th on 68 points in what has been a remarkable first top-flight campaign. W6 D2 L2 in their last 10, scoring 17 and conceding only 8 – this is a team in form, playing with confidence, and looking very much like they want to finish in the European places. The head-to-head context and projections are available at the Statz H2H page.

Key Stats

The Statz projection says it all: 0.72 expected goals for Cremonese versus 1.90 for Como. That is a significant gap that reflects the quality difference across the season. Como are playing at a level above their hosts in most statistical categories – they have outscored opponents comfortably and conceded sparingly in recent weeks.

Cremonese average 14.8 fouls per game across their last 10 – the highest of any team in recent fixtures. Giuseppe Pezzella leads their foul count at 1.8 per game. Referee Fabio Maresca averages 4.45 yellows and 0.27 reds per game across 11 Serie A games – there is a real chance of cards in this one given Cremonese’s physical approach.

Players to Watch

Anastasios Douvikas is Como’s top projected scorer at 0.44 goals per game. He averages 1.76 shots per game in the Statz model with clear intent in the box. Against a Cremonese defence that has been conceding at a rate of 1.5 per game, the Greek striker looks a genuine threat.

Alvaro Morata adds a different dimension to the Como attack. His projections show 1.77 shots and 0.29 goals per game – he draws fouls at a rate of 1.41 per game too, making him dangerous in areas where Cremonese’s tendency to foul could be costly in front of goal.

For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli is the best hope at 0.22 projected goals per game. He leads their shot volume at 1.86 per game and 0.80 shots on target – if Cremonese are to get anything here, it will come through him.

Betting Angles

Como to Win – 1.90 projected goals to 0.72 is emphatic from the Statz model. Como are in brilliant form, 5th in the table, W6 in their last 10. Cremonese are a leaky, inconsistent side at home under pressure. The away win is the play.

Douvikas 1+ Shots on Target – The top individual projection in this fixture at 0.44 goals per game. Cremonese concede chances freely and Douvikas is in form. Strong candidate in the shots market.

Over 2.5 Goals – The model gives 2.62 combined expected goals. Como score freely (17 in 10), Cremonese leak goals (15 conceded in 10). This has goals written all over it.

Verdict

Como win. The Statz model projects 1.90-0.72 away, Como are in the form of their lives for a newly promoted side, and Cremonese have been conceding too freely to keep this tight. Back the visitors, look at both teams to score, and trust the model on this one.