Torino vs Inter Predictions, Betting Tips & Best Bets – Serie A 26 April 2026

24th April 2026

Inter are top of Serie A for a reason. They travel to Torino on Sunday knowing that three points would tighten their grip on the title – and the numbers back them heavily to get them. The Nerazzurri sit 1st on 78 points, 38 ahead of a Torino side who are 12th with 40, battling to stay relevant in the final weeks of the season.

This one has the feel of a mismatch. Let’s dig into why.

Form and Standings

Torino have been inconsistent all season – a W4 D2 L4 return in their last ten tells you everything. They’ve scored 15 and conceded 14 across those games, and their goal difference for the season sits at -17. They’re not a team in freefall, but they’re not exactly building momentum either.

Inter are a different animal altogether. W7 D2 L1 in their last ten, 26 goals scored and just 10 conceded. Their season GD is +49. This is a team operating at a level Torino simply can’t match right now.

The market reflects it. Inter are massive favourites with a 66.16% implied probability of victory, compared to just 11.42% for a Torino home win. The draw sits at 22.42%. Check the full H2H breakdown for more context.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections have this as a comfortable Inter afternoon. The model projects a scoreline of Torino 0.80 – 2.26 Inter, with Lautaro Martínez leading the way as Inter’s top projected goalscorer at 0.58 expected goals. For Torino, Giovanni Simeone tops their expected output at just 0.21 – a significant gap.

Over 2.5 goals is priced at around 55% probability, which looks reasonable given Inter’s firepower and Torino’s tendency to concede. BTTS lands at roughly 48% – possible, but Torino’s attack makes the second ball less likely than it might seem.

Referee Watch

Maurizio Mariani is the man in the middle. Across 14 games this season, he’s averaging 24.57 fouls, 3.93 yellows, and 0.14 reds per match. That’s a decent foul count per game – and with Torino’s Gvidas Gineitis and Inter’s Federico Dimarco both topping their respective teams for fouls committed in the last ten games (17 each, 1.70/game), there’s real card potential here.

Bet Builder – 4 Legs @ 4.76

Built using the Statz Bet Builder Tool, here’s the stat-driven slip for Sunday:

Combined: 4.76 on bet365

Bet this builder on bet365

All four legs land on consistent off-ball involvement – tackles and fouls that show up regardless of scoreline or game state. That’s the kind of legs you want in a builder that could see Inter controlling possession and Torino scrapping to get back in it.

The Angle

Inter are the clear play here. The model projects 2.26 goals for the Nerazzurri and Lautaro’s 0.58 xG makes him a live anytime scorer option. Torino are battling for nothing in particular, while Inter have every reason to keep pushing at the top of the table.

If you’re playing the match result, the away win at 66.16% implied probability is the most supported outcome by some distance. For those who prefer the bet builder route, the four-legger above gives you solid hit-rate backing at a combined 4.76.

Either way, Inter are the team to follow here. Check the full H2H stats and projections on Statz before you bet.