Lazio vs Udinese Predictions, Betting Tips and Bet Builder – Serie A
27th April 2026
Lazio host Udinese at the Stadio Olimpico tonight (7:45pm) in a mid-table Serie A affair that has solid fouls and physical play written all over it. Lazio sit 9th on 47 points (DLDLWWWDLW in last 10), while Udinese are 11th on 43 (LLLWDLWDWL). Both sides have been inconsistent but neither are pulling up trees right now.
Lazio are a passing team – 7th in Serie A for passes (490.3/game) – but they rank only 14th for goals (1.0/game). They create through possession rather than volume shooting (10th for SOT, 4.0/game). Udinese are a more direct outfit: 8th for fouls committed (13.7/game) and 8th for yellow cards (1.9/game). When these two styles meet, midfield battles and referee involvement tend to follow.
Projections: Lazio 1.29 goals, Udinese 0.94. Model has Lazio win at 42.9%, draw at 31.1%, Udinese win at 26.0%. Clean sheet probability: Lazio 39.1%. Over 2.5 only at 38.6% – this looks like a tight, low-scoring match.
Lineups and Player News
Predicted Lazio XI: Motta; Lazzari, Provstgaard, Romagnoli, Tavares; Patric, Basic, Taylor; Isaksen, Noslin; Zaccagni. (Unconfirmed)
Predicted Udinese XI: Okoye; Kristensen, Solet, Kabasele, Ehizibue; Miller, Piotrowski, Karlstrom, Ekkelenkamp; Atta; Davis. (Unconfirmed)
Pedro and Zaccagni lead the Lazio attack. Keinan Davis is Udinese’s top projected scorer. Check confirmed lineups on Statz closer to kick-off.
Recent Form
Lazio’s last 10: W4 D3 L3, 10 goals scored, 9 conceded. Mixed but capable of winning at home. The four wins in that run came at home, which gives some confidence.
Udinese’s last 10: W3 D2 L5, 12 scored, 9 conceded. They score but they also lose. Three defeats in five isn’t form that suggests they’ll push for a result in Rome.
Interesting Player Stats
Mattia Zaccagni ranks 2nd in Serie A for fouls drawn (81). The model projects him at 2.54 fouls drawn tonight – by far the highest figure in this fixture. Against Udinese, who average 13.7 fouls/game, he’s going to get fouled. That fouls drawn market at 92% projection is one of the clearest signals on tonight’s card.
Keinan Davis is 7th in Serie A for goals (10) and 18th for shots on target (23). He’s Udinese’s focal point up top and projected at 0.65 SOT tonight. On his day he causes real problems, and at 80% L5 hit rate for SOT he’s the standout Udinese option.
Nicolo Zaniolo is the other Udinese player worth watching. The model projects 1.72 fouls committed and 1.53 fouls drawn tonight – he’s 82% projected for 1+ fouls. Udinese’s most physical attacker against a Lazio side with real wide threats. The card market is live here.
Betting Angles
The low-scoring angle is the most compelling structural case. Over 2.5 goals sits at just 38.6% in the model. Lazio clean sheet at 39.1% – the odds on that will likely represent value versus the implied probability. Both teams rank below average for goals output.
The fouls/cards market is also interesting. Udinese are 8th for fouls and yellows, Lazio carry 7th for yellows – both commit regularly. Referee Kevin Bonacina averages 26.67 fouls and 3.78 yellows per game across 9 Serie A matches this season. Add Zaccagni drawing 2.54 fouls projected tonight and this game has card market potential.
For the Serie A bet builder, Statz picks these four legs:
- Christian Kabasele – 1+ tackles: 100% hit rate last 5 (1,1,1,1,1). Consistent as they come from the Udinese centre-back. Odds: 1.50
- Oumar Solet – 2+ tackles: 100% hit rate last 5 (1,1,1,1,1). 12th in Serie A for tackles (64 total). Odds: 1.62
- Keinan Davis – 1+ SOT: 80% hit rate last 5 (1,1,0,1,1). 7th for Serie A goals, constant threat. Odds: 1.44
- Arthur Atta – 1+ SOT: 80% hit rate last 5 (1,1,1,0,1). Udinese’s creative outlet in midfield. Odds: 2.20
Summary and Suggestions
This has the feel of a tight, low-scoring game where Lazio edge it at home. Under 2.5 goals and Lazio win make a compelling match bet combination. Clean sheet on Lazio (39.1%) is also worth a look if you like a slightly longer return.
The bet builder is strong here – Kabasele and Solet are both 100% L5 for tackles, making a two-leg base that’s as close to a lock as you’ll find in bet builder markets. Add Davis SOT for a three-legger at around 3.5x combined.
Full stats and Serie A projections on Statz.